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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jack bittner who wrote (48417)	11/8/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Bux	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

John Cuthberson (sp?) is on "Who wants to be a millionaire?" He is up to $8000 and has all three lifelines left. Something tells me he is on a roll! Let's all wish him luck. Bux

To: jack bittner who wrote (48417)	11/8/1999 1:01:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

****Some answers to some of your questions. ***** 1) I've read here, or on Gilder, that in 5(?) years 1 billion people will be on wireless. how could anybody know what number it'll be? **** It is the year 2003 (less than 5 years). The prediction is now for MORE than 1 billion. Every single previous projection on wireless growth has been exceeded by the actual numbers, I think. ********* 2) someone on these threads projected what he said was Q's 70% growth rate to 300 million customers in 5 years, the other 700 million users being, i suppose on GSM. does 300 million make sense to you? ****Should be simple. *********** 3) same guy guessed Q'd make $10 a customer. that make sense to you? *****I think I have heard numbers as high as $40 or $50. Maybe that was in the good old days, when ASIC chips obviously sold for more than currently. ******** 4) that's $10 x 300 mill. = $3 billion a year gross revenue. ****NO -- the numbers being discussed were profits, not revenues, I believe. ******************** 5) would that $3 bill be pure licensing income? if so how much of the $3 bill would be net income? 6) if 90% of that becomes net income: $2.7 billion, how many times those earnings would you value it at? if 50% margin: $1.5 bill, how many times earnings would you value that net? something i'm missing here. doesn't seem enough income for the stock to rise. there'll be more than 300 mill. customers? they'll pay Q more than $10 a phone? if it's just licensing income will the party end when the patents expire? ****My understanding regarding "it all being over when patents expire" is -- don't even think about this, for many, many reasons. It is dead wrong. ( I am not going to try to post details here now). ******** what'll the other income be? not trying to make a point. just ignorant, and long Q. *******Final comment -- many others on this thread can answer this stuff better than me (and, they probably know how to touch type), so I hope others also respond to your post. ************ Jon.