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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (32732)	11/8/1999 12:58:00 AM
From: theRedDog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

from briefing.com: (I like them because they tell you what they think is going to happen, instead of what did happen like everybody else. --And sometimes they even get it right <g>) >>>>>>>>>> Techs must overcome a big hurdle Monday morning in order to keep the rally going... The findings of fact released Friday night were unfavorable for Microsoft (MSFT 91 9/16), and the stock is expected to shed as much as 10%... Clearly that will weigh on the indices right from the start - good timing on the addition of MSFT to the DJIA by the way... But after the initial response, clearer heads will prevail... Though Friday's findings weren't positive for MSFT, they in no way point to the immediate break-up of the company... Should the DOJ push for such a remedy, it would be years before the appeals are decided... Most likely, the findings drive MSFT to the bargaining table and a settlement is reached within a matter of weeks... What form such a settlement takes remains unclear, but we doubt it will seriously impact the company's future prospects much... Nevertheless, the street will assume some measure of pain and that is why the stock will fall initially... And while the stock's decline will drag the rest of the market/sector lower at the start, we expect the broader market/sector to bounce back smartly for five big reasons: 1) A somewhat tamed MSFT is good news for other tech companies... Perceived winners likely to include Sun Microsystems (SUNW 109 11/16), Oracle (ORCL 58 11/16) and America Online (AOL 145 1/2)... 2) Today marks the beginning of the AEA tech conference - the biggest such conference of the year... Among tech traders there's an old market adage which goes buy the AEA conference and sell the H&Q conference (play on seasonals)... 3) Earnings... As you'll see below this isn't a big earnings week in terms of volume, but two tech giants - Cisco (CSCO 73 7/16) and Dell (DELL 40 3/4) are on the calendar... Despite lingering doubts among investors, Briefing.com expects CSCO to beat the street by at least one cent and for Dell, which already warned of sales troubles, to at least match its number... 4) Slew of tech companies scheduled to conduct shareholder/analyst meetings (including MSFT)... We expect the underlying tone of these meetings to be positive... 5) IPO market should remain red-hot, thereby keeping the momentum traders active and happy... Issues to watch this week include Free Markets (FMKT), Expedia (EXPE) and Quintus (QNTS)... Full list of offerings provided on our IPO Calendar... The combination of these factors should offset the MSFT-led, Monday morning decline, leaving techs positioned to extend their gains - albeit at a somewhat slower pace. One development which could derail the sector's advance, at least temporarily, would be a much stronger than expected PPI report, due for release Wednesday morning... <<<<<<<<<