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To: Zardoz who wrote (44737)	11/8/1999 9:02:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116958

Spin doctors plus number crunchers equals confusion <Picture> by WILLIAM DAVIS Chancellor Gordon Brown, who presents his pre-Budget report tomorrow, denies that the Government is manipulating data on public spending. The accusation does, however, merit a closer look because it is made by the Royal Statistical Society. Denise Lievesley, its president, says: 'I hope we can trust this Government not to lie to us but we cannot trust it not to put a gloss on things'. Bob Worcester, chairman of the Mori polling organisation, agrees. The Government, he says, 'is permeated with people who are putting spin on the statistics. It is an affront to the British public'. The point is valid, but one can hardly blame ministers and their aides for doing so. The Tories were no different when they held office, and politicians are not the only offenders. Business also likes to play games with figures. The debate about the euro is a good example. The pro and anti lobbies make extensive use of statistics and opinion polls to support their arguments. They cannot both be right. We are subjected, on an almost daily basis, to a mind-boggling barrage of numbers. Many appear in the form of surveys that purport to tell us what is happening but are often used to advance a particular cause. The markets are not easily fooled, but the public tends to find all this confusing. Statisticians commonly disclaim responsibility for the way their efforts are interpreted. Many are also concerned about the quality and integrity of official statistics - an aspect that certainly deserves more attention. The Treasury has announced that a new independent commission will be established next April to keep an eye on the figures and make suggestions on how they can be improved. Why wait until then? The move was promised before the last General Election and is clearly overdue. It follows last year's well-publicised problem with the earnings data. The Chancellor was forced to suspend them after revisions raised doubts about their reliability. There was concern at the time because of the important role played by the data in the Bank of England's decisions on interest rates. The Treasury and the Bank joined forces to produce a review and concluded that there was considerable room for improvement. Treasury Economic Secretary Melanie Johnson claims that 'these new arrangements will ensure that we enter the next century with a statistical service that is open and responsive to society's needs and which will deliver better and more reliable statistics that command public confidence'. It is too much to hope that it will prevent politicians and others from twisting them to suit their purposes, but it should make it harder for them to get away with. We all accept that statistics can, and do, play a useful role in a complex modern society. I believe, however, that we put too much faith in numbers and give them excessive prominence. The precision is often bogus, but it has the power to intimidate. Tomorrow's report will include an upward revision of growth and this year's public finances. It is endorsed by independent economists, so the Chancellor is entitled to resent suggestions that he is trying to mislead us. I do not question his probity, but there are plainly good reasons for treating statistics and forecasts with a degree of caution. At best, they are a valuable guide. At worst, they point away from the truth. ¸ Associated Newspapers Ltd., 08 November 1999 Terms and Conditions This Is London thisislondon.co.uk