To: David Wiggins who wrote (2049 ) 11/8/1999 8:31:00 AM From: MrGreenJeans Respond to of 3175
FOCUS-French ally may ease Vodafone Mannesmann bid (Rewrites with analyst and banker comments, updates shares) By Kirstin Ridley LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Cellphone giant Vodafone AirTouch Plc (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: VOD.L) is likely to bide its time before pouncing on former European ally Mannesmann AG in a deal that could value the German group at over 80 billion pounds ($130 billion). But because Mannesmann has launched a $33 billion bid for Vodafone's British arch-rival Orange Plc (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: ORA.L), any deal would have to include a sale of Orange -- and France Telecom is increasingly being tipped as the most likely buyer. Analysts said on Monday that the French were ``natural bidders' for Orange, because they could roll the innovative cellphone group into Britain's biggest cable company, Nasdaq-listed NTL Inc (NasdaqNM:NTLI - news), in which they hold a 25 stake. ``Vodafone is being forced into a corner. But they have to do something and a relationship with France Telecom makes sense -- although price remains key,' said one analyst. BID TALK PROPELS SHARES Renewed speculation of a bid, this time from the Sunday Telegraph, sent Orange and Mannesmann shares to 12-month highs of 16.00 pounds and 165.5 euros respectively. Orange was at 15.89 pounds, a rise of 1.5 percent and Mannesmann at 163.70 euros by 1215 GMT. Vodafone slipped by 0.8 percent to 314-1/2p. Vodafone, a long time suitor of the German group, is a minority partner in Mannesmann's key German and Italian networks. But Mannesmann's declaration of hostilities with its Orange bid is triggering mounting speculation that Vodafone will eventually be stung to bid to protect its European investments. ``My feeling is that this is something Vodafone wants to do. They want to own Mannesmann's continental assets, there's no doubt about it,' said another analyst. ``But it's a question of at what price and how. I think it is likely that they will wait,' the analysts added, noting that the longer Vodafone waited, the better a price it would be able to get for Orange as cellphone company prices surge. However, under British competition laws Vodafone will be unable to own two UK mobile phone businesses and banking sources say any bid for Mannesmann will have to involve a pre-sale agreement of Orange with the French. ``I'm sure they are looking at it -- as they have to be,' noted one investment banking source. ``But nothing implies there is something about to happen.' The Sunday Telegraph reported that Vodafone was in talks with France Telecom about a joint 45 billion pound hostile bid for the German company and that the British-based group was sounding out investors on such a move. But some analysts believe any bid for an enlarged Mannesmann would be more likely to command a hefty premium and value the group at nearer 80 billion pounds, including debt. Vodafone, which is in a quiet period ahead of half-year results on November 16, France Telecom and Mannesmann declined to comment. ``We dont comment on press speculation or market rumour,' a Vodafone spokesman said. POISON PILLS Although Mannesmann's aggressive Chief Executive Klaus Esser has said he doubts his company would be the target of a takeover by Vodafone, analysts believe he cannot affort to be complacent. Some analysts say about 60 percent of Mannesmann's equity is owned outside Germany and predominantly by U.S and UK investors, who are likely to take the view that Vodafone is as good a company to run Mannesmann's businesses as the German group. But one reason why some believe Vodafone might play a longer game is because of Mannesmann's articles of association, which specify that no investor can vote a shareholding of more than five percent -- regardless of how much stock they hold. Although the five percent ceiling will be abolished around next June, some experts believe Vodafone might have to sell Orange at a steep discount to the heady price paid by Mannesmann in return for control of its European assets. ``It's not a walk in the park for Vodafone to proceed with this, not to mention succeed,' said another analyst. "Their hand is being forced and I think they have to act sooner rather than later because it's such a dynamic industry. The longer they leave it, the less it is in their control. ``But they are going to have to pay a significant premium and it will not be easy