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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (8229)	11/8/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

An attempt to make the tables in Jeff's post a little more legible (with some guesses on ambiguities)-- Globalstar Projected 2000 Revenue Range (millions)+ (X axis) Average Number of Subscribers Per Month (thousands) (Y axis) 125 175 225 275 325 130 $93.60 $131.04 $168.48 $205.92 $243.36 140 100.8 141.12 181.44 221.76 262.08 150 108 151.2 194.4 237.6 280.8 160 115.2 161.28 207.36 253.44 299.52 170 122.4 171.36 220.32 269.28 318.24 + Assumes $0.48 average per minute wholesale fee. Source: Company reports, Satellite News A Comparison of Selected Mobile Satellite Service Providers Globalstar Ellipso ACeS Thuraya Total Cost $3.88 $1.10 $0.80 $1.10 Start Comm'l Svce 3Q1999 2001/2002 early 2000 Sept. 2000 Subscriber Terminal Cost (voice) $750 fixed: $1,500; mobile: $700 $900 $600 Avg Price Per Minute (wholesale) $0.38-0.54 $0.08; $0.3-0.35 $0.25-0.4 $0.42 Estimated Retail Fee Per Minute $1.30-2.99 N/A <$1 <$2 Coverage (1) (2) (3) (4) (1)Withthin +/-70 degrees of latitude (2)North of 50 degrees latitude south (3)23 Southern & Asian Pacific Countries (4)5 Southern Asian countries Source: Euroconsult, Via Satellite, Globalstar

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (8229)	11/8/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 29987

Jeff, Had to run out for a minute. Back now, and want to offer a comment. The writer may be mixing up "being profitable for 2000" with "in 2000". Both of the last two conference calls have addressed the need for additional cash. In the July call, Bernie stated unequivaocally that August would be the last round of financing needed. He seemed to hedge on this a little bit in the more recent call. I assume he is looking for a way out because of the handset delays. In any case, he did state that any additional financing would be from vendors. The run rate is $50MM per month. That might be an easier way to look at it. $50 MM requires 125 MM minutes of use at $.40 per minute, or 200 minutes per terminal (assuming 625 M users). That's from a mix of mobile and fixed terminals. I seem to recall that they are projecting 160 MOU per mobile terminal and 300 per fixed terminal, so the mou per user seems ok to me. The real question of course is the users and terminals. Can they get 625 thousand user terminals, both fixed and mobile, into the right peoples' hands, by the time they are about to run out of money? That's 50,000 per month. My guess is that the first time there is any suggestion that 50,000 units will be delivered in one month, this stock should take off. Best, JS

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (8229)	11/8/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 29987

<On the retail side, per-minute rates will generally be between $1.30-$1.50 within a subscriber's home country, $1.50-$1.99 within a region (e.g. Europe), and no more than $2.99 inter-regionally. Assuming more calls will be made in the latter two categories, Globalstar's average per-minute rate should be about 48 cents. According to Globalstar, subscribers will use the service anywhere from 140 to 160 minutes per month. We use a range of 130-170 minutes of use (MOU) per month to be on the somewhat safe side. More minutes used per subscriber could mean lower retail, and possibly, lower wholesale rates. The biggest wild card in the revenue calculation is the number of subscribers. For both revenue and investor perceptions, the number of subscribers could make or break Globalstar. > Good grief! What a revelation: "the number of customers could make or break Globalstar". Somehow, Globalstar and even these analysts seem to live in a world of suspended animation where icky earthbound customers are nothing but some balance sheet mirage. The ONLY thing which matters is how many customers sign up and pay enough money to keep the whole show on the road [need new figures of speech for in space]. Okay, to keep the whole show in orbit. What does the following mean? <...More minutes used per subscriber could mean lower retail, and possibly, lower wholesale rates...> I suppose they mean that if a subscriber uses a LOT of minutes, that person will get a bulk discount. That makes sense because there aren't enough handsets, so it's vital to get handsets to the people who will pay a LOT in minutes [from Globalstar's point of view]. But why does that mean lower wholesale rates? I don't see what that means. Once there are enough handsets and the handset and minute prices are in balance so there is no queue for handsets, minute prices should be lowered until the constellation fills. Then prices should be raised to keep supply and demand balanced. So, handsets should be expensive at first, then decline in price as the constellation fills. The minutes should be cheap at first, to encourage massive demand and rapid handset production [when handsets are super profitable, Qualcomm, Telit and Ericsson will go 24/7 to boost production]. Since production can only be expanded at some rate, the minutes won't be too cheap or the handset prices will be $10,000 on the second hand market. Meanwhile, it's all theorizing until they finally, in the end, belatedly and maybe in 2000 start letting actual icky customers get their hands on a phone. But wait. 15 November is just around the corner and maybe those websites 'under construction' are suddenly going to have the covers ripped off and in resplendent glory will be the most earth shattering marketing campaign the world has ever seen. The FBI will fade like ghosts in the morning. Gateways will light up the sky and satellites will spring to life as 300,000 handsets pour out onto the information superhighway. We'll go into 2000 in a blaze of glory and excitement. Jaws will drop. Marketing schools from Harvard to Hawea [a less significant marketing district in NZ] will rewrite their textbooks and retrain their academics. Handsets will be beeping from Vladivostok to Valparaiso [bet you don't know where that is]. $$$$$$ will tumble from the sky in a cyberstream to the bottom of Globalstar's balance sheet. Ahhhhhhhhhhh, bliss. Maurice