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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/8/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: Burt Masnick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583813

Re:To All: This time I'll take care of AMD earnings guestimate contest. Regards, Goutama Great. -$0.43

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/8/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583813

Re: "To All: This time I'll take care of AMD earnings guestimate contest." Put me down for -.68 EP

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/8/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: Mani1	Respond to of 1583813

Goutama, Nice post, Do you expect AMD to sell 1.1 million Athlon this q? Re <<This time I'll take care of AMD earnings guestimate contest.>> Cool, when are we required to have our guesses in by? :) I like to at least wait for the CC. Mani

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/8/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: Cory Gault	Respond to of 1583813

-.55

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/8/1999 3:59:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1583813

Goutama - RE: "Fab service to Cirrus" Are you talking about Cirrus Logic? (no relation to me ;) ) Is this fabbing for them new? Or are you thinking about Vantis? "To All: This time I'll take care of AMD earnings guestimate contest." Oh good! I was thinking of doing it, but not now. ;) I'll make an estimate this time, but not until after the upcoming CC.

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/8/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 1583813

Re: I'll take care of AMD earnings guestimate contest. Thanks! Put me down for 20 cents a share (expecting a profit for the quarter). Regards, Dan

To: Goutam who wrote (78989)	11/17/1999 2:58:00 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1583813

Earnings Competition Numbers: Its early, but I want to make an estimate before AMD gives any further guidance on the matter so here goes: REVENUES ---------- Estimated Athlon sales (shipments): 1.1M Estimated Athlon production: 1M (reduction of inventory by 100K) ASP of Athlons: $270 Total Athlon revenue: $297M (+$237M vs. Q3) Estimated K6 sales: 5M @ ASP=$56 = $280M (-$28M vs. Q3) TOTAL CPG GROUP SALES: $577M (+$209M vs. Q3) MEM GROUP SALES: $300M (+$94M vs. Q3) COMM GROUP SALES: $84M (+14M or 20% vs. Q3) OTHER SALES: no change (3M, though there might be something positive from sold Vantis division here TOTAL REVENUE INCREASE: +$317M to $979M EXPENSES ---------- Increased direct costs of Athlon production. About 1M more Athlons will have started production by the end of Q4 than Q3, since most of Q1'00 production starts in Q4'99. 1M x $50 = $50M additional costs Cost of K6 production assume no change but it might have come down. Cost of additional memory and COMM group sales, assuming 50% gross margin: half the increase or $54M Increase in depreciation per conf call: $30M Increase in MG&A (mostly advertising): $30M (CC said this was $20M, but AMD probably increased advertising even more) TOTAL INCREASE IN COSTS: $164M NET CHANGE IN PROFIT = 317M - 164M = 153M ESTIMATED 4Q PROFIT: -105.5M + 153M = 47.5M no taxes PROFIT per share: 47.5M/149M = 0.32 Hopefully the detail given here will enable others to plug in their own assumptions and make a better estimate. Petz