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Biotech / Medical : Biotech vs. Shorts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Guy Gordon who wrote (251)	11/8/1999 8:21:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 427

As I mentioned in my previous post, there are two companies I own and follow that have prospective treatments (not cures) for pancreatic cancer. Both are pretty likely, IMO, to ultimately receive approval for this indication, if only because the existing bar is so low (Gemcitabine, the approved drug, is only barely better than nothing). The first is Supergen (SUPG). Here is a recent abstract of their drug: Int J Oncol 1999 May;14(5):821-31 Related Articles, LinkOut A study of 9-nitrocamptothecin (RFS-2000) in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. Stehlin JS, Giovanella BC, Natelson EA, De Ipolyi PD, Coil D, Davis B, Wolk D, Wallace P, Trojacek A St. Joseph Hospital, Houston, TX 77002, USA. This ongoing study evaluates the efficacy of oral 9-nitrocamptothecin (9NC), or RFS-2000, in the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer. Patients received 9NC orally for 5 days/week; 8 weeks of therapy is required to achieve minimum effective dose. Starting dose was 1.5 mg/m2/day, with adjustments made as necessary. Patients were analyzed for changes in tumor size by CT scan, changes in serum CA 19-9 tumor marker levels, quality of life, and survival. 107 consecutive patients with advanced adenocarcinoma of the pancreas were enrolled before November 3, 1997. Of this group, 47 patients did not receive the minimum 2 courses of treatment necessary to induce response, leaving 60 evaluable patients. Primary dose-limiting toxicities were myelosuppression and interstitial cystitis. No deaths were attributed to 9NC. Median survival was 6.5 months for the 107 total patients and 8.7 months for the 60 evaluable patients, with one patient surviving at 44+ months. Of the 60 evaluable patients, 31.7% were responders (median survival 18.6 months; range 6.5-44.7+ months), 31.7% were stable (median survival 9.7 months), and 36.6% were non-responders (median survival 6.8 months). Fifty-seven previously untreated patients had a median survival of 7.3 months compared to 4.7 months for the 50 previously treated patients. Thirty-three patients who failed gemcitabine therapy prior to 9NC treatment had a median survival of 4.7 months. 9NC is safe and efficacious as first-line therapy for the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer. It also shows some modest success as second-line therapy in treating gemcitabine failures. Note that the abstract (and the company) quote responses in terms of "evaluable patients" which exaggerates the efficacy. Not a red flag, but perhaps a yellow one. The other drug is MOGN's (MGI Pharmaceutical) MGI-114. This is in Phase II trials for a number of tumor types, including pancreatic. Here's the NCI trial abstract: cancernet.nci.nih.gov In the Phase I trial, at least one late-stage pancreatic patient had something like a 70% reduction in tumor size. MOGN is (slightly) profitable (even after paying for MGI-114 development) based on sales of Salagen, a treatment for dry mouth including Sjogren's syndrome. At this point MGI-114 is still something of a lottery ticket - we'll likely know next year whether it will be a taxol-type blockbuster or only a marginal drug. SUPG has been strong of late for no discernable reason, so this might well be the one that is being plugged. I don't think either are good shorts, given they could go through the roof on any good results from their trials. MOGN is still a reasonable buy at these levels, but I'd be more cautious on SUPG, although I'm holding for now. Peter