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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (79036)	11/8/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573432

Re: "My back of the envelope calculation shows that the 4 FABs should be able to process something like 5 million die per week (guessing the 4 Intel FABs are about the same size as the 2 AMD FABSs), (5K wafers * 250 die * 4 FABs) so even if the initial yields aren't great, there should still be a flood of chips available. " Dan, they have many other product lines that are in very high demand. 100's of Millions of units per year. You think they are going to convert 4 fabs over to 100% CuMine production overnight and scrap the other products? EP

To: Dan3 who wrote (79036)	11/9/1999 12:53:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Respond to of 1573432

Dan - <My back of the envelope calculation shows that the 4 FABs should be able to process something like 5 million die per week (guessing the 4 Intel FABs are about the same size as the 2 AMD FABSs), (5K wafers * 250 die * 4 FABs) so even if the initial yields aren't great, there should still be a flood of chips available. > This isn't the way it works. This is a ramp, it is not a spigot. You are way too optimistic on your production capabilities, for any IC manufacturer in this situation. Didn't you read the F18 press release? This is a brand new fab just starting to get wafers out the door. It will not be at full capacity until sometime next year. You just don't turn on any fab full blast right out of the gate. Also, for the fabs that are currently producing other product but are being converted, you just don't retool in a matter of a couple of weeks. It is again a ram, a ramp down for the older technology, and a ramp up for the new technology. You are again being way too optimistic in your projections as to how steep the slope of these ramps are. However, with the four fabs that are producing .18 product, it was calculated at some point that we need x many die for Q4, and the four fabs at the beginning stages of the ramp should be able to meet that demand. Evidently, the demand forecast was significantly off. I actually do not know for a certainty what is going on with the parts Intel is shipping. I do know Intel isn't sitting on them, from the reports I have seen. PB