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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (32871)	11/8/1999 7:33:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

Les this is more interesting CBOE MOST ACTIVE CLASSES CLASS VOLUME HIGH SERIES VOLUME LAST SALE CHANGE AOL O 90,502 C NOV 150 8,033 3 7/8 + 3/4 S X Y 60,900 P DEC 1300 7,635 14 3/8 - 2 5/8 OEX O 51,715 P NOV 700 7,549 3 7/8 - 3 CSCO 41,768 P NOV 60 5,873 1/2 + 1/8 MSFT 41,056 P NOV 90 6,775 3 + 1/4 QAQ B 35,505 C NOV 280 3,807 22 7/8 +15 3/4 DLQ 32,025 P NOV 40 5,993 1 1/4 + 1/2 I B M 30,939 P NOV 90 3,703 2 3/8 + 7/16 O E Y 23,741 P NOV 680 2,743 1 7/8 - 1 1/2 SZP AM 19,990 P DEC 1250 5,908 8 1/4 - 1 3/4 DJX O 17,937 P JAN 96 4,440 1 1/4 - 3/16 LU 17,216 C DEC 70 4,371 2 1/4 - 1/8 SXZ AM 16,288 C NOV 1400 5,414 8 + 1 5/8 CIEN 15,543 C JAN 50 5,175 3 5/8 - 3/4 CPQ 15,428 C NOV 20 6,864 1 5/16 + 3/4 ORCL 14,841 P NOV 60 1,734 2 15/16 - 3/16 PFE 14,384 C NOV 35 3,298 1 - 1 15/16 WCII 12,190 C DEC 55 8,752 5 3/4 + 2 1/8 TBH 11,075 C DEC 85 2,104 4 3/4 + 1/8 HD 10,920 C JAN 80 4,776 4 1/8 + 1/2

To: Les H who wrote (32871)	11/8/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Les Horowitz: On CNN Moneyline - Laszlo Birinyi predicts COMPX to reach 3500 by the end of this year. LG says MSFT ownership started changing hands today. Regards, LG

To: Les H who wrote (32871)	11/15/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Nov 12, 1999 Por Favor In our October 18 newsletter we stated that our work suggested the Dow was near the next major low. In fact, we stated the following regarding our important Gann Quarterly Chart: "The Quarterly Chart turned down again on Friday, October 15,1999. The history of the last 12 years suggests that there is a good chance that we are now within one to three days of an important bottom." The Dow in fact reached a low of 9884 intraday on 10/18/99, within two days of our target. The Dow has since rallied 1002 points from that low to a high of 10886 on 11/05/99. It remains our position that the Bull Market is still intact, and that new highs still lie ahead before any important top. In our last newsletter we also stated: "The Cycles call for a short-term low near October 20, plus or minus 1 day and a short-term top near November 15, plus or minus 1 day." The Dow in fact reached an intraday low of 9884 on October 18, within 1 day of our target zone for a bottom. The Dow has since risen 1002 points intraday to a high of 10886 intraday on November 5. Monday is November 15, so we could see a short-term high in Dow on November 15 or 16. If so, the ensuing decline should prove relatively brief, probably not lasting more than two to three days before the Dow turns back up to even higher prices. Another argument for some sort of brief but possibly sharp pullback or correction very short term comes from the action in the key foreign markets. You might think that what goes on in the most important foreign markets has no bearing on what occurs here in the U.S., however, that would not be true. This is a near global Bull Market. Most of the key foreign markets reach highs and lows near the same time frames as the Dow. For instance, the London FTSE reached an important top on 7/20/98. Just like the Dow, it saw a major decline from there. It also bottomed on 10/8/98, just like the major indices here in the U.S. The same is true for the DAX and the French CAC Index. These foreign indices have skyrocketed since their 10/18/99 lows. The FTSE is up over 11%, the DAX is up over 12% and the CAC is up over 14%, all in just 18 days. Each are now into extreme overbought territory and due for a correction. For instance, the 5-Day RSI on the French CAC Index closed at 97.23 yesterday. We must stress again that this indicator cannot go above 100. In fact, we would to go back three years, back to 11/20/96, to find a reading higher than 97.23 in the Dow Jones. That reading on 11/20/96 was 97.50. The 5-Day RSI on the London FTSE on Thursday was 92.18, and on the German DAX it was 93.36. This suggests each of these key foreign markets are overdue for a brief correction. We think either the Dow will see a sharp, but brief correction, soon and these foreign markets will follow, or the foreign markets will begin a sharp correction first and the U.S. will follow. Before we leave the foreign markets we should say that anyone who believes we are now in a Bear Market should take a look at the charts on each of the above foreign markets, especially the London FTSE and the French CAC. The French CAC is setting new Bull-Market highs. The London FTSE is near a new high. In fact, any rally above 6664 in the FTSE any day from here on will give one of the strongest Buy Signals we could get, from our Gann Quarterly Chart. Even a brief glimpse of the foreign markets shows they are clearly still in true Bull Markets. What is the likelihood of the U.S. being in a Bear Market now while the other major foreign markets are still in strong Bull Markets? We believe the Bull Market in the Dow is still intact, and that we will ultimately see new all-time highs.