To: Dennis who wrote (22601 ) 11/8/1999 8:11:00 PM From: QwikSand Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
To all: There seems to be more and more press items like this one. The consensus seems to be settling on this view: wherever the "Road Ahead" may lead, Microsoft ain't on it. Guessing the top on M$FT is going to become an important sport. --QS SEATTLE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Regardless of how the landmark antitrust case against Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) turns out, the company's influence is waning in an Internet-driven world moving rapidly to devices other than personal computers, analysts say. Even before the U.S. Justice Department and 19 states filed suit against the world's largest software maker in May 1998, Microsoft executives were scrambling to stem defections of software developers shifting to Windows-independent platforms. "I think they face the biggest threat they've had in years," said Scott McAdams, president of Seattle-based brokerage McAdams Wright Ragen. "There is a fundamental change going on in information appliance architecture." Microsoft remains one of the world's most profitable companies, spinning off $2.2 billion in net income last quarter mainly through its dominance of the market for operating systems and basic applications on desktop computers. But as PC growth has slowed, Microsoft has found itself outflanked in many of the hottest new areas of technology, including devices ranging from cell phones to video game players destined to become important Internet gateways. "The PC is no longer the most dominant force in the technology industry," said Scott Winkler, an independent consultant based in Fairfield, Conn. "It is certainly a huge generator of revenues, but it is not growing anywhere near as fast as other sectors." U.S. District Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled last week that Microsoft has stifled competition through its monopoly power in the market for personal computers based on Intel Corp.'s microprocessor architecture. But many industry analysts agree with Microsoft that the computing market already is far broader than that narrow view and will continue to increasingly shift to non-PC devices. "(Jackson's) decision is potentially harmful to the company going forward even though it's based on a view of the market that's looking in the rear-view mirror," said McAdams. In addition to the revolution in non-computer devices, software itself is being transformed in ways that undercut the dominance of Windows, as network-based applications become increasingly attractive to corporate purchasers, forming a new paradigm for developers. Because such applications are run off the Internet or a remote server, they are more dependent on the browser interface than any operating system. And even though Microsoft's Internet Explorer has become the world's top browser for personal computers, the company has been unable to lock in developers by adding proprietary extensions to Internet standards. "When this lawsuit was filed Microsoft's lock on developers was very strong," said Rick Doherty, research director for Envisioneering Group in Seaford, N.Y. "Today that has waned significantly. In the future it will be even less." As evidence of Microsoft's loosening hold, Doherty cited the success of the Symbian consortium's Epoc operating system for next-generation digital devices, which is backed by some of the world's biggest wireless phone makers and 3Com Corp.'s (NASDAQ:COMS) powerful Palm Computing unit. Meanwhile Microsoft's rival Windows CE has suffered some embarrassing defeats, including the decision by Philips Electronics N.V. (AMS:PHG) to stop making its Nino line of hand-held devices based on the system. On the server side, Microsoft's area of fastest growth in recent years, the company faces a growing threat from the rival Linux system, among others. Microsoft is hardly standing still in face of the growing threats but has poured billions of dollars into new markets including cable television, aiming to ensure it participates in the next phase of the information revolution. But largely because of Microsoft's well-earned reputation for throwing around its power in the personal computer industry, leaders of other technology industries have studiously avoided giving any real leverage to the Redmond, Wash.-based behemoth. "Normal market practices are working in that there has been a high resistance to them having an overwhelming control" of new platforms, said Doherty. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service