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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (32885)	11/8/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

X, otoh, there are many beaten down value stocks....my guess is that at some point they will be all the rage. btw, there is no way of telling if U.S. bonds will be a safe heaven similar to Japanese bonds. it seems likely on the face of it, however, the fundamental backdrop of Japan was/is different in one crucial aspect, namely the savings rate. most people don't know this, but during the biggest bear market of this century, from Sept. 1929 to July 1932, bond prices actually FELL. paper assets were liquidated as players wanted to get their hands on cash no matter which way... the only asset performing well in that bear market were gold stocks...in fact i think HM never again performed as well as during that stretch. the backdrop of a balanced budget coupled with record high private indebtedness was a feature that was present in the late '20's and is so again today. perhaps bond markets will react differently though this time, that's hard to tell. i would think that the Fed will pump even more liquidity into the system should the stock market take a beating one of these days and i can't really figure out how that's going to benefit bonds or the dollar. just a thought.... regards, hb