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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (34190)	11/9/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Investor2; Try CompUSA, Computer Stop, or CompuCare, all of them have recently advertised Athlons. This is not a complete list, just the ones that put ads in the local Sunday newspaper. When you find the Intel salesmen talking big about what the next Intel model is going to be like, the conclusion to come to is that the current Intel model is a little lacking. If it weren't they'd be selling you whatever that current model is. Everybody knows that sales guys would prefer that you buy the model that they have on hand, not the one that they are going to have on hand sometime in the future. The obvious reason for this is that a bird in the hand is worth any number in the bush. If they lose the immediate sale, who knows where the eventual sale will go, or to whom the commission will be paid. Things are looking quite rosy for AMD right now. I don't think that the pick-up in AMD's fortunes will subside until some time after Intel abandons Rambus. I don't think that this will happen for at least 2 or 3 months. Right now, it looks like Intel is going to work hard on getting those Camino chipsets out the door. This is just a matter of getting goods out the door, as opposed to scrapping them, it is not an indication of long term intent. The product has been manufactured, now it must be sold. The indication for long term intent (i.e. 3 months from now) is simply wafer starts at the RDRAM manufacturing plants, and that is still flat lined. Until the memory makers switch back from PC100, PC133 and DDR, the long term story on RDRAM is dead. That Intel isn't going to scrap the 820s is good for Rambus in the short term. The long term still looks quite hopeless to me, DDR desktop machines are going to be demonstrated at Comdex, and the server market has almost completely gone to DDR. Rambus is losing market segments at quite a high rate, it should be completely excised from the PC industry by mid next year. But Intel will not be likely to admit that Rambus is a dead technology while they still have to sell all those Rambus chips to consumers. Because of this, I think that RMBS is probably reasonably safe from horrible Intel news for the next 2 months or so. But as those 2 months go by, if we continue to hear no word that Rambus chips are back in production (at the memory makers), then the long term story is still that Rambus is only a (bizzare) footnote to the late 1999 early 2000 PC memory market, not the future of PC memory. Regardless of what the Rambus longs say about what Intel says, the simple thing to do is to extrapolate future revenues from current production. Current production is almost completely halted. Intel needs to move product already manufactured, until they have sold those goods, they are not going to erase Rambus off of their memory roadmaps. They may announce support for other memory types at Comdex, but they will still insist that Rambus is the future, at least until consumers absorb all those RDRAM and Camino chips. (What would anybody do in that position?) -- Carl (p.s. There, is that better FUD, richard?)