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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (33038)	11/9/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

>>>The huge amount of speculation which is in the markets evidenced, not only by stock values, but also by the enormous overhang of derivatives on all markets and the possibility that inordinate derivative exposure could bring down the US banking system. (But for Alan Greenspan, LTCM almost did just that)<<< Chip, i am copying something from vitas link here. AND you know i am deeply a contrarian and i have posted to this thread several times the magazine covers "smarter bull" and "commmitte to save the world" were mega contrary indicators. I will take to task here Greenie's saving LTCM as an intercept to armstrong's 8.6 year business cycle, which has caused the tech parabolic that started on october 8th 1998 and created an investment panic buying blow-off and capitulation of armstrong, russell, prechter (he resigned from writing EWT and has been remarkably silent this year) and the SYMBOLIC and mythologic removal of the last bear of wall street, Gail Dudak. The committee to save the world, which savvy trader Rubin left at the top of the game, is going to do the opposite. bb

To: bobby beara who wrote (33038)	11/10/1999 3:12:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"...short ndx and long gold and happy to be there right now." Did you hedge the long gold with long internet per James Dines, [or is it the other way around?] FWIW, my value analysis of ICGE even un-nerved me despite the brave words, sold part of ICGE $183, bought more gold. Mike

To: bobby beara who wrote (33038)	11/10/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby....Thanks for your reply, >>It's possible that the kondrietieff wave deflationary cycle bottomed with the Asia crisis and now we are in an inflationary wave<< Did you know that the infamous Dr. Ravi Batra is back with a new book and he's saying the very same thing. I stopped by a book store and there he was...can't remember the title, but it's out! One of the fascinating elements behind Armstrong's work is the mathematics and with these projections he is suggesting the US markets need to "...retest support going into 2000. Without a pull back, the global instability will create a dangerous economic situation in the years ahead. It is clear that a high in 2002/2003 for the US market may be followed by a crash...." What bothers me about being bearish at this time is the strength of the VLE and RUT....It is very possible the rotation towards value and the small companies has begun by the informed trader. With this rotation and all the new money created by the markets it should mitigate any serious correction for the near term. There may be some weakness after the 15th December as the world wanders into the Y2K complications....but other then this there is no indication the economic world so carefully handled by our favorite government employees will not just keep jugging along. I expect the Nas may take a side step, but not a crash. What Armstrong may have missed is that we just had the correction at the very base of our economy as viewed by the adv/decl line since late Oct 1998. Only the few high fliers some say 7 others 50 have actually kept these markets up and masked the actual deflationary problems of American economy. This is now about to change and an improving VLE/RUT is a clear indication that this market has forward strength and the slow recovery of smaller stocks will eventually produce some inflationary forces once again. I'll guess the Nas and DJIA find some pressure to stay up and the VLE/RUT begins to move. Will there be a crash between now and 2000....I doubt it unless something big comes out of the sky? Could 2002 bring the crash, may be....just might happen? Chip