To: cfoe who wrote (48779 ) 11/10/1999 11:01:00 AM From: Skeeter Bug Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
cf, yes, there is MASSIVE asset inflation as represented by the higher valuations people are willing to pay for certain stocks (the number keeps shrinking, btw). expectations are important. however, a more important issue is the source of funds to act on said expectations. follow the money. we are in the midst of a credit bubble. savings are not only negative for the first time in HISTORY, they are a negative 4%! so, expectations are HUGE (i actually don't think there aren't any expectations other than that a stock price will go up - most don't understand nor care about underlying businesses - greater fool theory in full effect) and money is coming from debt. massive increases in debt to continue to fund this nifty fifty bubble are not sustainable long term. short term, yes. long term, no. >>The Internet age has ushered in an economy of increasing returns versus decreasing returns.<< my view is that folks look at stock prices and talk about a "new economy" to justify them. the net is cool and i use it much more than most. a retail mecca it isn't, though - unless you are into tech stuff and know how to shop around for the best deals. great for the consumer, not good for businesses, long term. btw, did you see what happened to amzn yesterday? they announce that they have a news announcement to announce the next day and the stock rockets 20 points. they might want to announce, the announcement of the announcement of the actual announcement next year and their market cap may double ;-) another tidbit of fact: there was one day this year where the top 6 techies (msft, ibm, etc) increased their market cap in one day more than than the entire market cap of the top ten tech companies' total market cap in 1990. if 1990 expectations ever return, the economy is, for all intents and purposes, dead. btw, expectations are, by definition, always high in bubbles. appreciate the dialogue. i know i'm far too rational and should close my eyes and through money at the momo stocks. however, that game doesn't last forever and most folks end up worse off when it is over. nice day for qcom stock. good luck.