Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Swiss who wrote (146861)	11/10/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: kemble s. matter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Drew, Hi!! RE: here is my take on the EPS estimate for tomorrow. If we assume that a 61.6% unit increase par Dataquest will translate into approximately 51% revenue growth (similar to the way the 50.3% translated into a 41.8% revenue growth rate last Q -this does not consider that October in Dell's Q is stronger than July in Dataquest's Q), and we assume net margins went from 8.3% last Q to 8% this Q (related to the temporary DRAM pricing situation), Dell should report EPS of $.22/share and revenues of $7.6 billion. Hey babes...I know you do math... :o) Hope you're right on....Enterprise is the key... Best, Kemble

To: D. Swiss who wrote (146861)	11/10/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: rdwng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Don't forget the recent aquisition cost. I believe the forecasts are including them in this quarter. I'm not at all sure though! BTW A simple question. When Computer sales data are published, how are the leased units addressed? Are they included as a "sold" unit? TIA Redwing

To: D. Swiss who wrote (146861)	11/10/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: BBG	Respond to of 176387

>>>Dell would still produce .22<<< Good analysis... hope you're right... .22 should produce a 10% pop... I'm guessing they'll annouce .20 and a positive CC the stock will close around $44 on Friday.... Go DELL BBG

To: D. Swiss who wrote (146861)	11/10/1999 7:12:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Drew - If I go backwards from your $7.6B revenue, 8% net gives me $608M, which, given DELL's 2.55B float, yields .238 EPS... Am I doing something wrong? I'm not quite that bullish, it would be great if DELL hits your estimates. Based on the percentage per Q of total revenue over the last few years, which is about 26.4%, and my estimates of between $26B and $26.5B for the year, revenues would hit between $6.85B and $7.05B. If we use your 8% net, this would yield EPS in the .21 to .22 range. The same calculation based on the seasonal shift between fiscal 2Q and fiscal 3Q (1.11) yields 6.83B, or .214 EPS. However, I have been chastised here by Jim Kelley for suggesting that DELL might do that well... Perhaps he is more optimistic now. In my original post Message 11753242 I said Looking at the IDC numbers, I can't imagine that DELL will miss the earlier consensus estimate of 20, and would expect them to be a few points over that. But as we have seen, strong earnings don't seem to move the stock up - they are a requirement to keep it from going DOWN!! Kelley responded with Message 11757201 it is interesting that you are pegging the necessary earnings numbers at 3 to 4 cents per share higher than the current consensus estimate. Then again you are setting the margin bar higher than the consensus has set it. You do this after DELL has already informed you that the margins will be squeezed by high memory costs. I responded with siliconinvestor.com. You and several others pointed out that DELL did not revise guidance down and said nothing about missing the then-current estimate of .20 to .21 - have you changed your tune and now think DELL will miss?? Kelley returned siliconinvestor.com. You do not read very well. The current consensus estimates are 16 to 17 cents per share due memory price spikes. I questioned Jim in siliconinvestor.com. So your position is that DELL DID warn and that they WILL miss the earlier estimates? I did not read the DELL announcement that way, most on this thread did not. Do you really think DELL will miss??? Jim reiterated his estimate in his response siliconinvestor.com. I think if you read this again perhaps you will get it. "The current consensus estimates are 16 to 17 cents per share due memory price spikes." You have attempted in your posts to set DELL's EPS at 22 to 23 cents per share. Why did you do that? Perhaps Jim would care to share his current thinking with us... I am sticking to an estimate of .20 to .21 before the .07 1-time charge.