It is nice to know that WSTL is basically the MAIN CPE supplier to BEL and through its partner ALA, has the ability to supply ALL the RBOC's. The projections of the RBOC's lines for ADSL is incredible (compared to the CLEC's projections)...
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<June customer counts and analysis Companies are proud of what they installed, and are starting to release the number of actual customers. We are confident the June customer count is between 150 & 200,000, the end of 1999 will be between 700 & 850,000. The demand is there, press coverage is escalating, and broadband content becoming available, so this number will be higher if the field can install more. It may be slightly lower if field problems continue. Below, we explain why we think the number at the end of next year will be at least 2,000,000 and more likely 3,000,000.
For the end of 1999, SBC expects 200K customers. SBC estimated in June that at the end of the year US West would have 125K, Bell South 100K, and CLECs 77K, and the CLECs are ahead of that pace already. If Bell Atlantic and GTE do similarly to Bell South and US West, that indicates a total of 700-850K subscribers in the US at the end of 1999. That would be a quantum leap from the 77,000 Telechoice estimated early in the year. SBC has the highest customer counts at 100K (Sept), with US West at 80K (Sept) GTE, BA, and Bell South are all active. Covad has the highest released number among the CLECs at 31K(Sept.), with Northpoint announcing 11,500 (Sept.) and Rhythms catching up. Comdisco/Red, Harvardnet, and NAS are all lower than Rhythms, while MCI & Sprint are just beginning to sell, and AT&T is just an announcement. BA, BS, & GTE do not release official totals, so are the largest uncertainties in the table.
. The demand is clearly there; SBC told us they are receiving 5,000 inquiries per day, and most companies are receiving more orders than they can effectively service. The main question is how fast the companies can install, and we have good guidance for that. The marketing machines have yet to roll, but AOL, MCI, and AT&T are on the way. The mass deployment is only in the last six months, and proceeding at 4-6M more homes passed each month. These numbers are also consistent with the sales estimates of the primary vendors to the telcos, such as Alcatel's official estimate of 1,000,000 DSL line cards shipped worldwide this year, most in the US, where they are the primary suppliers to SBC, Bell Atlantic, Bell South, and Ameritech.
Estimating growth in 2000 is much more difficult. DSL Prime believes the installation backlog can be cleared by the end of 1999, and more than half of the country will be wired. New areas will be wired throughout 2000 (Bell Atlantic, for example, intends to double its coverage) so that allows a natural expansion of the subscriber base. Broadband content is developing, and customer demand as well. Assuming the rate for late 1999 of about 100,000 per month continues through 2000 would put DSL over 2M by the end of the year. But surveys show that most businesses aware of DSL plan to shift, and most heavy home users would if the price is right. So our most likely scenario shows an accelerating rate of growth, with 3M more likely by the end of 2000.... But Pete Castleton of Bell Atlantic stated the overriding imperative "We're going to beat cable." > |
