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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A. Edwards who wrote (33132)	11/11/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Howard Bennett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Altogether now -- "This is the beginning of a 3 to 5 year Semi Cycle". We've all, no doubt, heard the now popular refrain/mantra coming from the semiconductor "analysts"....this is the beginning of a 3 to 5 year cycle. Anyone care to take a stab at explaining just how they know this -- other than purple smoke and mirrors -- or hopes and dreams.

To: A. Edwards who wrote (33132)	11/12/1999 1:26:00 PM
From: Howard Bennett	Respond to of 70976

AMAT IR Clarification (Regarding SSB note) I contacted AMAT IR yesterday and they just sent me the following: FIRST CALL RESEARCH NETWORK 10:23am EST 12-Nov-99 Salomon Smith Barney (BEDEKAR 415-951-1727) AMAT AMAT: Clarification From Boulders --SUMMARY:--Applied Materials--Semiconductor Equipment Please read below for a clarification on our AMAT Boulders note from 11/9/99. --EARNINGS PER SHARE-------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 10/99 EPS $0.11A $0.36A $0.61A $0.64E $1.73E Previous 10/00 EPS $0.64E $0.64E $0.66E $0.68E $2.63E Current 10/00 EPS $0.64E $0.64E $0.66E $0.68E $2.63E Previous 10/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $3.10E Current 10/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $3.10E Previous 10/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Current 10/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Footnotes: --FUNDAMENTALS-------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:2H Prior:No Change Price (11/11/99)....:$108.50 P/E Ratio 10/00.....:41.3x Target Price..:$85.00 Prior:No Change P/E Ratio 10/01.....:35.0x Proj.5yr EPS Grth...:25.0% Return on Eqty 99...:19.7% Book Value/Shr(99)..:9.22 LT Debt-to-Capital(a)10.6% Dividend............:$N/A Revenue (00)........:5050.00mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:378.0mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:41013.0mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:(a) Data as of the most recently reported quarter. Comments............: --OPINION------------------------------------------------------------------- Applied Materials at the Boulders Conference presented a chart which showed 1999 revenues at $5 billion and their 2004 market opportunity at $60 billion. The 2004 $60 billion figure is a market opportunity and not AMAT's expected run rate. The $60 billion market forecast for 2004 includes not just wafer fab equipment but assembly and test, service and support, and other relevant items that are included in capital spending. Today, AMAT's served market is a subsegment of the wafer fab equipment market. We estimate that AMAT has 55%-60% market share of its served available market and 30% market share of the wafer fab equipment market. Over the next five years, AMAT expects to rapidly push internal product development and external M&A strategy to address as large a portion of this $60 billion market as possible. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Securities recommended, offered, or sold by SSB: (i) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. (c) Salomon Smith Barney Inc., 1999. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution. Please refer to ticker SSBDISC for important Salomon Smith Barney Disclaimer information. BEDEKAR 415-951-1727 First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company. All rights reserved. 888.558.2500 Note ID: 182096 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ To update your order or to receive research on other companies, please call Corporate Services at (617) 856-2100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ First Call Corporation TEL: 617-856-2100 22 Pittsburgh Street FAX: 617-261-5627 Boston, MA 02210 EMAIL: firstcall.notes@tfn.com First Call is a registered trademark of the First Call Corporation