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Technology Stocks : Exodus Communications, Inc. (EXDS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Other Analyst who wrote (1541)	11/11/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3664

Hi OA, I doubt that many investors leave out the valuation number crunching. As with all companies the valuation will at some point have to reflect real earnings and expansion. However, I have found that when dealing with a nascent market sector it is extremely difficult to assign an "accurate" price target. There is no doubt that this market places a "premium" on expanding market share. Putting a dollar figure on that premium is simply impossible, since it has to do with investor "sentiment". so of course valuation matters, but I have learned from past experience that it's impossible to call the top. In essence when you "value" the company, isn't that what you're doing? Since the market is forward looking the best you can do is estimate what kind of earnings growth can be expected and then estimate what kind of premium the market is willing to pay for that growth. Two extremely difficult variables to quantify. I felt a little squeamish about buying QCOM at 190 because of valuation, too. As long as the money flow is going in to the stock and the market affirms the valuation, I'm hanging in.... I will say that EXDS has been fairly predictable in retracing after perceived highs, so it could be a good short for the extremely nimble. But I don't think you can expect any type of sustained down trend from a market leader in a burgeoning sector. bp

To: The Other Analyst who wrote (1541)	11/11/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Eric	Respond to of 3664

This is how you should approach internet stocks: do some analysis on the company, but don't get too caught up in the numbers, get a general sense of the market and what is the position of the company ... pick the stocks that you think are the market leaders, then just turn things over to technical analysis and trade based on chart. I can guanrantee that you will almost always do well. trade on fundamental is totally an oxymoron. If you are long, then pick a nice uptrend chart, also knowing the company is the market leader in a explosive market, that way even if you make a mistake reading the chart, you still have a chance to be picked up. Of course, the story is different if your holding period is in years rather than days.

To: The Other Analyst who wrote (1541)	11/12/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3664

TOA, I meant to ask you yesterday, do you have a target to cover on EXDS or do you really believe it's in the early stages of a major correction? Thanks, bp

To: The Other Analyst who wrote (1541)	12/5/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3664

You, sir, are particularly sharp. As in clueful. Now just what is your estimation of the take of Net companies as a percentage of legitimate, reported business in 10 years time. I'm on to a figure of 4.5%. Inasmuch as the listers on Chemdex are still selling chemicals, and the net will get about a 2% cut there as intermediaries. Other markets will not be quite so efficient. And some markets will be strictly informational, a la SI and count their revenues 100% toward the total. Wondering what you had in mind here. HapiHolidaze, Ray