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Pastimes : Bad investing information/advice on the net contest -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Edwarda who wrote (135)11/11/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: The Other Analyst  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 214
 
I do wish you would use your considerable talents to spot some bad advice that can be recognized before the fact. That post at Business Week was more an "after the fact" blunder. If you find bad advice on an ex post basis, it will not be eligible for the contest, interesting as it may be to read.

Here is another example I did not make up.

Lock-up Period
This is a strictly enforced SEC rule that prohibits company insiders from selling shares after the IPO has been consummated. In most instances, the lock-up period also known as Rule 144 lasts for 180-days.


It is not an SEC rule. The lockup period is an underwriter practice. If the underwriters want to release the insiders early, they can do so. But I am not aware of any SEC rule behind a lockup period.

The source of this incorrect information (just so you don't think I was making it up) was IPO.com, at
ipo.com
This is out of character for them to be so off base. They are a better than average site.

But here is one more blunder from the same source:
Quiet Period
Lasting for 25-days after the offering has been completed, no one from the company can discuss financial expectations or other pertinent data until this period is over. At the time of completion, Wall Street analysts can start issuing coverage on the stock that generally translates into huge activity for the stock. One exception: If a company has debt already trading, no quiet period exists.


Quiet period starts when the investment banker is hired. Not when the IPO occurs, as this definition implies. A small point.

Your turn.



To: Edwarda who wrote (135)11/14/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 214
 
Edwarda, I believe that sell-side analysts provide a fund of bad investing information. Unfortunately, the investing public seems to be blithely unaware of just how bad the information can be.

The link you provided dramatically shows just how potent cash flow analysis is in uncovering problems. In fact, OXHP's demise (It was once a $90 stock) could have been predicted using the same warning signs discussed in the article. But how many sell-side analysts talk about such obvious disparities as declining operating cash flow when earnings are increasing? How many discuss the gap between taxes paid and "provision for income taxes"? And how many talk about off the income statement expenses like employee stock options? To be sure, some talk about the "quality of earnings", or note increases in DSOs, but that's really double talk because they routinely side-step the major issue: GAAP earnings are really smoke and mirrors for many companies.

Instead, they focus on projections of GAAP earnings and sales growth. I am still scratching my head in wonderment over analysts' recommendations of AMZN.

TTFN,
CTC