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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (49125)	11/11/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

based on what? come on gives us your insight. I wasnt basing my fears on any particular event just on an observation that Qualcomm has had pretty big pullbacks several times over this huge run. It just seems to be playing it pretty close to the edge if you are going to get a margin call if Q falls below 300. I'll go through a couple of near term risks.....these arent huge but they are things that I am looking at. 1) ASP's seemed to have fallen dramatically on phones during the last quarter. Hopefully they have stabilized during the Christmas quarter....A 25% drop in ASP's will hit royalties (and thus the bottom line) pretty hard. This would also result in pricing pressures on Q's ASIC division. Remember that even though the this quarter will have the most phones sold, the ASIC's were already shipped last quarter and some of the royalties have already been recognized. 2)The next year or so is a transition year for Qualcomm....they wont have the benefit of HDR or 3G. Their revs and eps will still rely on IS-95 buildout around the world. Korea seems to be continuing at 1m subs a month....which is impressive considering the penetration which has already been established. Japan has been ok....but not spectacular. The real driving force for new subs in CDMA will have to come from the US next year. I am still waiting for the real explosion in new subs in the US....This has happened in a variety of other countries but has not yet occurred in the US. Luckily most of the analysts have pretty conservative numbers on Qualcomm....however the market seems to have priced in quite a bit of good news. All in my opinion.... Slacker