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To: patrick tang who wrote (20616)11/11/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Glen2  Respond to of 25814
 
>>Trick is to predict when the recovery will end, not the exact 'price target' to sell<<

Patrick, you're on the right track. Since the recovery just started earlier this year, 2000 and 2001 will be good. The "bust" from which we just recovered, was the longest in history. This extended bust could be cause for the boom to extend into mid-2002. However, let's worry about that in the next millennium.

My model is simple: The secular trend is up for all of next year. I'll use FUD, downgrades, etc. as reasons to buy the dip. I'll use euphoria, upgrades, etc. as reasons to take profits. But, nothing can de-rail the secular trend.

Good trading, Glen



To: patrick tang who wrote (20616)11/11/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25814
 
My thumb-rule would be to sell as soon as there is a second analyst downgrade (both the downgrades should be based on fundamentals, and NOT the stock price). However, I might end up selling most of my shares a lot sooner than that -- a good lot will leave the table when the stock price reaches 99 7/8.