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To: bill meehan who wrote (74958)	11/11/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Psychological finger prints: Remider from #reply-11373463 <<1) Warnings from the Federal Reserve Board and other prophets of disaster-warnings which, scoffed at when given, nevertheless filled the Market with a conviction of sin. 2) A period of almost two months (since the Babson Break early in September) in which it had taken strychnine-injections to push quotations ahead. The September slump (currently almost ignored in favor of the peculiar theory that the Market crashed without warning) was of tremendous importance in its indication that a market which could survive only by constant rises had reached the limits of its climb. 3) Most important of all, indications of a slowing tempo in U.S. industry. The motor stocks, for example, had long since fallen from their January highs--a forecast of slackening production in the latter portion of the year. Now steel mills were no longer running at 97% and 98% of capacity. Slowly the Market began to realize that 1929 might be an abnormal year, a high-water year instead of one more level in a still-rising tide. If this fear were well founded, what then of 1930, or 1931, of even more distant times, the anticipated prosperity of which had been already discounted? The Market had mortgaged itself with the future as its security. If that future did not continue rosy, the security had disappeared. >> Babson Break was September 6, 1929. Market Break October 29th, 1929! Ballmer Break was in September 23, 1999. Market Break circa Nov 17th?? History not only rhymes. It repeats.