To: Glen2 who wrote (49190 ) 11/11/1999 7:23:00 PM From: John Biddle Respond to of 152472
Pardon me for butting in here. But, I had the opportunity to listen to Joe Battipaglia, (Gruntal) speak about 10 days ago. He was asked the same question. He reminded everyone that conventional wisdom from financial planners is to take the whole kit and caboodle and invest it very, very conservatively, (bonds, etc.). His recommendation, however, was to stay invested just like you've always done. At the beginning of each year, pull out enough to live on for that year. Allow the majority of the portfolio to grow as it has in recent years. Take advantage of the bull market. If done right, one would be able to live financially forever. This would preclude having regrets about selling any of those Q-shares to cheaply. I hope you don't mind if I throw in my 2¢. The advice to keep most of the money in the market is excellent, in my opinion. As long as there is a good amount, expected to provide for many years, you should continue to bet on the long term return of stocks. And, if I may be so presumptuous, I'd suggest one adjustment. When it's time to take the money out, evaluate the market. If it's up, or flat, take out 3 years worth of expenses which you put in safe short term money market or CDs. Each year after that, re-evaluate the state of the market and if it's in good shape, take another year out to keep your funds at 3 years worth. If the market has done badly, you can choose to wait another year or 18 months or even 2 years to give it a chance to come back. There are retirement calculators out on the web which will give you the odds of outliving your savings. These predictions are based on the fact that market returns vary widely from year to year. They run a number of simulations using random returns which fall within the normal pattern. You might be surprised at the percentage of times the money doesn't last. If you were able to keep from withdrawing capital during the inevitable bad years, you could decrease the liklihood of outliving your money by a significant amount. That one years worth of cashing out in a bad year is like two years worth in a good year, and really hurts. Another trick is to adjust your spending during bad market years in order to withdraw less during those worst of all times.