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To: re3 who wrote (74986)	11/11/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Ike, in terms of the NAZ it is WAY grander already. the speed and size of the recent blow-off move already surpasses the final blow-off in the Nikkei slightly in percentage terms and by a factor of 3 in terms of time. (meaning it's taken 1/3 of the time to achieve the same percentage move). in terms of p/e it's already 3 times higher than the Nikkei peak, and counting. the SPX p/e has gone past the Nikkei p/e if you include ESOP's in the calculation (i.e. in reality). i'm not sure what the equivalent figures for the NAZ would be, but it's likely to be obscenely astronomical. there's an analysis out there that asserts that if MSFT were to properly account for the expense incurred by it's ESOP, it wouldn't have had a profit for the past four years, so possibly the TRUE NAZ p/e is close to infinity. another ratio, that of the savings rate vs. IPO issuance has reached infinity earlier this year for the first time ever, as the savings rate went negative... needless to say, the prior (all real numbers) peaks of this ratio were in 1929, 1972 and 1987.... the clocks have no hands....