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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (70413)	11/11/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Chris: Depending on the severity of a serious market collapse, you may be correct. If it is a massive fall, Greenspan would not stand around with his hands in his pockets. On the other hand, it is well known and well documented that the Fed thinks the markets are over-valued by as much as 50%, hence Greenspan would not likely be inclined to act quickly in the initial stages of a major market correction. Margin calls could do much damage before any action of the Fed could have significant impact. One more thought; Keep in mind that this last decade has witnessed unprecedented loose money. As such a period is extended, the impact of an extension or expansion of same tends to run into the law of diminishing returns. In essence, it requires ever greater gobs of it to maintain the scene. Obviously it can't go on forever. Personally, I suspect that expanding treasury selling is the most worrisome item on the Fed's discussion agenda at the moment. In the absence of a catastrophe, U.S.rates must rise. Best, Earlie

To: valueminded who wrote (70413)	11/13/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

Chris, I will respond to your question at length in a few days ( Will wants to have fun this weekend! ho ho ho) there are several good articles at gold-eagle which contemplate the scenarios for the decline of the US dollar. gold-eagle.com A few points throughout history without exception currencies suffer from prolonged trade deficits there is no reason to believe it will be different this time other than wishful thinking. Dr. Richebacher sees the US dollar strength as cyclical strength tied to the economy in a secular decline. He notes that the pattern has been for the dollar to weaken with the economy. All this talk of foreigners having to support the dollar to protect their current dollar holdings is utter nonsense IMO throwing good money after bad. I know many people hold this view but i think it is foolish. Much of the dollars strength has been borrowed from abroad aided by the yen carry trade and gold carry trade. In addition, the momentum of the stock market has helped but someday we will see this force go into reverse. More later. TL & EV cannot be avoided! Mike