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To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2697)11/11/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
 
Mr Fun, why wireline rates and cross-system compatibility are not the primary reasons why the USA cellular penetration has lagged Europe. From a few posts ago:
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<None of my business cards from U.S. executives have a mobile phone number listed. All of my European, Asian, Australian and other non-American business colleagues do.
This reflects a sea of difference between mobile cultures in the U.S. and the rest of the world.
>

Okay then, I'll pick out that quote! That is explained by something which has been recognized in the USA but gets little airtime. Calling party pays. The USA for some weird reason charges the person being called rather than the person placing the call to a cellphone. This is nuts! No wonder they don't put their cellphone number on their business cards.

The rest of the world [Finland and New Zealand] bill, or debit, the person calling. If somebody wants to pay the charges, they can get a special number which looks like a normal phone number, but switches to the cellphone, billing the cellphone user.

The USA is now struggling [for a year or more so far] with this concept. The service providers would make a LOT more money if they did it right. People would know other people's numbers. Cellphone owners would leave their phones switched on. The cellphone traffic would climb fast. Everyone would be a lot happier [other than the wireline operators].
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I think that explains it reasonably.

On the IPR and what's knowable. Okay, I agree with you when you put it the way you did. While there is a prospect of a court case, we can always get an OJ decision. Courts is a ass. [Probably misquoted]. They don't have to make photons land in the right place at the right time. They are an art form. Which means formless and detached from reality other than their own perception. No objective standard need be met. That criticism aside they do tend to cluster around a core of reason and sense.

There seems to me to be a very strong agreement in courts, competing business interests and investor minds that various essential patents are Qualcomm's. I'm happy to go along with that huge mass of judgement. Yes, a judge might upset the apple cart. I doubt it. Yes, maybe "Paradigm Shift Happens" and Nokia or another will bypass Q! patents in a brilliant array of novel engineering. We'll just have to worry about that if they achieve it.

Meanwhile, all are following the Q! and paying the Pied Piper. Yes, the Piper's tune did change, to get Ericy to follow and now the W-CDMA clone melody is harmonizing with cdma2000, with some warble, but much payment.

We had patent lawyer dave5 in the threads for a while, bleating that it was all unknowable. Yes. So is everything until we peer inside the box to see if poor Shrodinger's cat is alive. But that doesn't mean we stand still. We place our bets and takes our chances.

The Teroist argument for a long time was that GSM handsets were so spectacularly better than cdmaOne handsets that it was game over for CDMA. Yes, handset features are very important to consumers. So is the minute price and call quality. CDMA has succeeded in closing the handset gap so that the difference to consumers is becoming trivial and already, the ThinPhone has zoomed the options ahead of GSM. For example, CDMA battery life used to be a problem. Not now.

With HDR, MSM ASIC developments and coverage improvements, GSM is not any longer able to even hold the fort where the two compete head to head.

GSM is toast.

I have been surprised how long it took for CDMA to supplant GSM. The job is done in the USA. Japan too [against PHS which is to be deep-sixed in favour of 3G just as soon as NTT can possibly do it]. Australian GSM/CDMA wars have begun. South American TDMA/CDMA battles running hot.

Nokia will have to get their CDMA act really humming. Yes, there will be another 3 years of huge GSM sales. That's big money and of course Ericy and Nokia will stretch that as long as they can.

Europe has already decided to have Q! liberate them from GSM by way of the 3G cdma2000 clone. Albeit in new spectrum for the most part. Don't be sceptical about that. It'll happen. There might be some messing around with the GPRS and maybe even the EDGE stuff whatever that is. But the WWeb will demand better performance and lower cost only available via Mighty Q! and HDR, cdma2000, or clone, manufactured by Ericy, Nokia et al.

Actually, it isn't really religious nor too emotional between the happy denizens of SI. Tero invariably retains good humour. Some of the Q! foot soldiers get a bit wound up because he ignores questions, lines of argument and so on. They find that frustrating. Top points to Tero for remaining in good humour. Wearing a reindeer antler hat all day, you'd have to be good natured. Living in -30deg with a pineal gland shut down for 6 months would also mean the need for good humour [if black]. Having a roaring home grown Nokian world champion must be happy-making too.

Convinced?
Maurice

PS: Pineal gland. In dark conditions, our pineal gland output is affected. BUT! There's more to it than meets the eye! I did a web search and came up with this: alphaomega.se
which says that our mental states and objective reality part company in part because of this. I think that's what it says. But I wouldn't trust a Glastonbury Guru. Isn't that near Stonehenge?

And more. geocities.com
This pineal gland is a pain. Should replace it with a CDMA nerve centre.



To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2697)11/12/1999 4:39:00 AM
From: Sommers  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
 
<<...if you can convince me that my concerns are invalid, I would certainly buy Q, but for now, I'll stay on the sidelines.>>

Mr. Fun,

Thank you for taking the time to share your concerns on Qualcomm. They are valid. You are far more educated than I, although I have been accepted and will enter Sloan's program June 2000. As you know, this is a full-time 12 month program. Maybe you'll share with me some of your favorite professors.

Anyway, lets assume Qualcomm's patents and royalty income ARE successfully challenged and revoked - across the board - 36 months from now.

That is, Qualcomm's grip on CDMA technology and the resulting royalty income stream end officially December 2002.

And lets also assume Qualcomm does not develop and patent further advances in wireless technology. Does this possibility factor into your decision?

And you also assume it's not worth riding the "short-term" 18 month rocket, being unable to get out before Qualcomm hits the brick wall at 400 MPH.

Then where do you see the price of Qualcomm shares December 1, 2002 (post upcoming 4/1 split), if this all comes to pass? (40? 30? 20?)

And because of this possibility, you believe you shouldn't hold ANY Qualcomm shares.

I only have two questions: Let's assume Qualcomm goes up to 1000 in the meantime thanks to emotional investors, speculators, etc., (post December split -- 1000%) and the courts rule on Qualcomm's behalf. Only then will you begin to buy your FIRST QCOM share? NONE until then?

Wow. I had now idea some people were that scared.

We all know there's a possibility of downside, but surely the upside is greater. No? Much, much greater. No? Well, I for one am taking that risk.

See you December 2002.

I only take the time to write this because I respect your opinion very much and can only attribute our differing views to the possibility that you are focused on wealth preservation, not wealth creation.



To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2697)11/19/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
 
Mr Fun, did you see that BAM is going to introduce calling party pays in the USA? ATT did a little test run and decided it was uneconomic [another bad decision by ATT]. It is simply amazing to me that USA telecoms people struggle so with the concept - I suppose they can't get around the idea that Paradigm Shift Happens and the old 'don't give out your cellphone number' mentality in the USA has not served anyone well.

There have been several huffing and puffing articles in the past week about CPP. The USA is so enamoured of the vast successes they have had that they are peculiarly blind to their failures. Places like India since independence don't need to be blind to their failures because they don't have any successes [okay, they have created nearly 1bn people from a very spartan economy and I subscribe to the idea that it's good to have people, not to mention a low murder rate].

On Q! IPR, <You still haven't convinced me that Q's IPR rights are knowable. I actually talked to several senior people from Eric in Geneva and discussed this specific topic. ERIC actually feels that there are ways around the Q patents, but that it will take a couple years that they didn't want to give up to develop the alternatives and fight it out in court. Since Eric feels its patents are as valuable as Q's vis a vis W-CDMA, better to settle up lest the battle slow down adoption. Nonetheless, they CLAIMED that they wouldn't have to pay royalties for more than a couple years. Now this certainly could be wishful thinking, but it is also not the proof you were looking for. As I said before, NOK, MOT, TI, DSP, LSI have all stated with complete conviction that they felt that Q would not be able to make them pay royalties on W-CDMA>

You choose to believe Ericy and not Q! for some reason. Perhaps you are new to the holy wars. The goosestepping world of GSM has conducted a very long [half a decade] campaign of lies and disinformation, FUD and deceit, from claims that CDMA in mobile breaches the laws of physics, to calling Irwin Jacobs a fraud [we need to drag that poor dead horse Bill Frezza out for another flogging at this point]. Q! has made very few comments which have not turned out to be true.

The capacity claims way back in 1989 have been touted around as evidence of Q! BS. Keep in mind that at that time, CDMA by Q! was very much in the theoretical period. Theory and reality always clash to some extent, but even so, those capacity claims have come to pass with more to come. They have never had a problem with actual capacity claims promised to service providers and THAT is where the rubber meets the road.

Ericy is like Pinnochio. You really do believe them at your peril. To entrust your funds to their comments is naive. Given their history, I'm bemused as to why you insist that Q! ownership of their technology is 'unknowable' other than the philosophical idea that NOTHING can be knowable. You still have to try to get from dawn to dusk, even if you believe everything is unknowable, so we must try with what little knowledge and understanding we have. SI helps us clear our heads, but we all have 99.9% fog in our brains. If we can reduce that to 99.8% we improve our chances dramatically. We DOUBLE our probability of being right and getting rich!

So, have you bought some Qualcomm stock now that you are convinced that the IPR position is more likely to match the huge acceptance by hundreds of companies or hold out for the remote possibility that Ericy has discovered a truth tonic?

Nokia is desperate to succeed in the CDMA world and has made a real hash of it so far. If they buy the Q! handset division, do you think that would lend credence to the idea that Q! really has got the technology wrapped up? It's surprising that Nokia has had so little success, since unlike Ericy, they signed up with Q! in 1990 [maybe 1991].

Now we have those losers at Sun, who helped initiate the attack on Microsoft, drawing a bead on Qualcomm, hoping to get the IPR wrested from Q! and made a nice, socialistic, fair, universal, open standard, so all can enjoy the fruits of Q! genius without paying [though they do suggest Q! might get say $30 an hour for their labours].
Message 11991916

Now THAT is seriously something you might ponder. Judge Jackson, Janet Reno and Joel Klein don't want to have to work for a living. Much better to suck on the government tit and go round attacking companies which produce the things which make our lives good. Whining SUN is likely to get support. Maybe SUN should give their stuff out for a derisory 'compensation' for going to the trouble of inventing Sun software and stuff. Fat chance.

I would much rather have some dumb judge or jury give an OJ decision on a particular patent than have the whole patent business turned topsy turvy. Inventors who fail get nothing. Inventors who succeed will NOT be allowed to get rich, they will be paid some derisory sum as condescending compensation from the cargo-cult mentality of the hunter gatherer Neanderthals who are still in our midst.

That's something to seriously worry about.<John Gage, chief researcher at Sun, told about 350 participants at the two-day Asia-Pacific Information Technology Summit here that wireless information appliances will eventually be the driving force in the growth of e-commerce.

Bill Joy, Sun's co-founder and chief scientist, said that the growth of communications bandwidth, or capacity, will eventually make the cost of communicating "close to free." Wireless networks are also extending their reach so that they soon will be "pervasive," he said.

But, Joy said, U.S. companies are likely to be at a disadvantage in that market because of the country's failure to develop common standards for the most widespread of such appliances, the cellular phone. "The U.S. has done a particularly bad job at this by creating too much competition," he said. There are too many different standards and carriers don't carry each other's signals, he said.

That diffusion will give Japanese and European appliance makers an advantage because common standards in their home markets will result in larger markets, he said.

Gage and Joy also predicted that the U.S. standard for high-definition television may have to be junked because, they said, it can't receive signals inside of buildings. The process by which that standard was adopted was tainted by politics, and should have been opened for public participation and criticism, Gage said.

Companies that supported the current U.S. standard wanted the opportunity to earn royalties from proprietary technology, and so opposed adoption of a pre-existing European standard, Joy said.

Looking to the future, Joy said that intellectual property rules need to be developed that offer "a sensible blend between sharing and (ownership that provides incentives) to people who are creating the value" in new technologies.

Other key public policy issues that
> This is one of the companies which initiated the government attack on Microsoft in a fit of greed and envy.

Thomas Sowell on the case. You need to scroll right to the bottom, go to his archives and it's in November:
jewishworldreview.com

I've read a lot of his stuff and I can't recall anything I've disagreed with yet. Therefore he is an excellent writer with excellent ideas. Unqualified recommendation to read screeds of his writing. Double your money back guarantee that you like those archives!

Maurice