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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Charles R who wrote (79576)11/12/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Petz  Respond to of 1574122
 
Charles, re: long term for AMD
Too early to tell if AMD is a good long term investment.
agreed

One big thing I will be watching is IA-64 vs. AA-64.
I agree this looks about even for AMD right now -- Intel is ahead schedulewise, but likely behind performancewise.

For the next 6-8 months here's the risks I see:
1. If Intel comes out with Willamette before 7/1/00, it will probably leapfrog the best that AMD can do in 0.18
2. If there really, truly are Cu process problems so that first output from Dresden is after Q2'00, I'd be worried. That gives them 5 months or so to fix problems. (Wafer starts in early April coming out in June)

Basically, AMD needs Cu-process output from Dresden before Intel has the Willamette. I think, until then, the 0.18 Athlon will stay ahead of the 0.18 CuMine.

Petz