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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P. Ramamoorthy who wrote (16001)	11/12/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Re.:"...for the next 24 months, sit back ..." My reasons for 24 months: (1) It took VLNC at least 12 months since Nov 1998? (may be longer) to get to this point (Nov 1999) where they can demonstrate commercial production of a large volume of batteries, meeting the product specs, improving yields, completing the "design in" programs for specific products (cell phone, PDA, laptop) with OEMs, etc. It is not easy to commission "mass production" lines (Klockner and Arcotronics) while the "design in" programs are progressing simultaneously. Investors seem to underestimate this. (2) Lev locked the competition out of the specific machinery improvements by having the vendor sign some agreement not to sell certain machinery to anyone except VLNC, according to Lev. The competition probably has resources to shorten their learning curve by a few months but the OEM "designing in" programs will still take time (people interactions, testing, and several iterations, etc.), especially if the product needs to be redesigned to take advantage of the flexible form factor. Who knows what the competition is capable of doing? We have known "corporate raiders" before and how they control massive amounts of stock to achieve their purpose. (3) While the competition is trying to catch up in the area of commercial production, VLNC will be moving ahead with the next generation technology (the J curve effect?), improving the energy per liter, safety, recharge rate, or whatever characteristics that the market place likes to pay a premium for. (4) Lev pointed out in one of his calls that VLNC does not intend to license their technology soon. My guess is, at least two years (24 months). It is quite possible for VLNC to maintain their technology leadership position. It remains to be seen how VLNC will accomplish it in practice. Ram