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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JMarcus who wrote (714)11/12/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: BRAVEHEART  Respond to of 1494
 
Hi Marc,

Thanks for the insight into the shareholders meeting. I feel as though I was among those at the meeting having read your summary. Clearly confidence is at an all-time-high ( two year ). Both inside & outside the organization.

I would read into the findings with the diabetic trial as suggesting that a P-III trial is a no-brianer. One has to commend the trial's handling. The progress & size were managed excellently. Quintiles is a first rate organization. I wonder if Quintiles would be used with the P-III trial or would big Pharma dictate this avenue of approach.

As far as price appreciation goes who can argue with the placement & their entry level. It's called risks/reward. Let's face it we all could have purchased as much stock as we wanted within the past year at .50 at one point or another. Did we know the outcome of certain events. Clearly not. Nor do these folks relative to a P-III trial...

Sure I would have a different impression if this group were a short term flipp investment. However IMO. The company badly needed the funding on all fronts. This gives NTI the independence it has struggled with for close to two plus years & is the primary reason for the initial delisting. Certainly a company does not rise from the ashes without seed money.

Besides the current price level is relative to many factors. Surely this vote of confidence ( $4 million private placement ) will add to the impetus. Does their low entry level have a negative impact on the valuation. I think not.

Yes one often looks at insider interest to gauge confidence level ( .80 ) to ascertain ones own willingness to take the plunge. However large interest ( close to 50% of the company ) investments cannot be read in the same light.

One could in essence hold on till infinity for as close to fair market value as possible. Of course only in a perfect world. Given the turning point position of the company the dilution is for the most part irrelevant. It is a composition of closely held shares. Price appreciation is a factor of supply & demand. The action on the stock the other day suggests the stock quickly seeks fair value. I for one am satisfied.

PS: I look forward to Decembers results. : )

THANKS
Jeffrey



To: JMarcus who wrote (714)11/16/1999 4:44:00 PM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro  Respond to of 1494
 
Thanks for the report on the annual meeting. The most important facts that you report are the responses on the Neuropathic Pain trial. These are important because this is the indication that will produce the greatest revenues for NTII. In addition, these results are really encouraging.

The pretreatment pain levels are substantially higher in this Phase IIB trial than occurred in the earlier Phase II trial (60 vs. 45 on the 100 point scale). So, prior to treatment, the patients in the Phase IIB trial are suffering to a greater extent than in the first trial. Yet, the response to memantine is to reduce pain to a comparable level (mid 30s). This is a very significant reduction in pain level; cutting it virtually in half. This level of reduction is beyond what one might expect for a placebo effect. So, it strongly suggests that memantine is working well to relieve their suffering.

The magnitude of the effect is important because it indicates that the results may not only be statistically significant, but also clinically significant. In the long run, after approval, this translates into marketability. If I were a Neuropathic Pain sufferer, I would surely want to be taking a medication that could cut my pain in half and let me rest at night. That level of comfort would be worth quite a lot to me.

Today was another good day for NTII stock price. I was expecting a small pullback from the 2 1/2 level as usually occurs after a nice run up. But, instead it continues its rise on high volume. It's movement is very impressive and these Phase IIB results may be the main reason for the strength.

Best regards
John de C