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To: quickcat who wrote (3681)11/12/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: keith massey  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4467
 
I wish it was as easy as putting a date on it. I have seen a few days to two months before the company releases "The News" so I don't try and time any of these by a date. You can usually see the spring coiling on the chart and the tighter it winds the safer is your buy point.

Best Regards
KEITH



To: quickcat who wrote (3681)11/12/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: Rick McDougall  Respond to of 4467
 
It's 25 calender days. I have a site to track the quiet period stocks. If I can find it, I will post.....Rick



To: quickcat who wrote (3681)11/12/1999 10:37:00 PM
From: Rick McDougall  Respond to of 4467
 
Opps, found the site.....

ostman.com



To: quickcat who wrote (3681)2/20/2000 8:27:00 AM
From: ROb  Respond to of 4467
 
I'd be interested in your results with this strategy. Some months ago I did a statistical analysis of price movements in IT companies around the expiry of the quiet period and found no tradeable advantage. My observation was that analyst reports that come out right at the end of the quiet period are inevitably very favourable (gosh - really??), and I thought that if I got in right before I could get a pop. But I think the market prices that in.

In fact, the only reliable gain I could find is buying into the IPO (like that will ever happen).

Incidentally, the Street.com publishes this info now - when they started I e-mailed them with my info and one editor loved my analysis and wanted to discuss, but the guy there who was behind the idea of publishing the info wasn't interested in discussing it.

His reason? He was convinced that most analysts who follow IT companies issue reports based on their objective views about the companies. Whatever you think of that, I replied that that was not really the point, since the report that comes out right after the expiry is usually of an analyst employed by an underwriter in the offering that led to the quiet period, and they are the least objective (and the market knows this and prices it in, in my view).

Anyhoo, if you have had a different experience I'd love to hear about it ....

Rob Hyndman