To: BigBull who wrote (54581 ) 11/12/1999 2:53:00 PM From: diana g Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
You make a Good Case, Bull, irt alternative energy, I think it is also true that when R+D has been greatly increased in the past it has been in response to the Perception that very-much-higher oil prices were coming in the not too distant future. A world which thought $25-30 oil would be available indefinitely wouldn't be too concerned with getting the cold-fusion generator cranked up, imho. ---OPEC's repeated statements that it wants a stable price, and more importantly the fact of an ongoing fairly stable oil price, should therefore act to discourage development of alternates. imho. --------------------- irt non-OPEC production-- you wrote <<<"...The current price will eventually raise supplies from non OPEC sources. But "this time" those sources are largely to be found in deep water locations which require much more time and money to develop. ..." >>> How OPEC sees this is hard to judge. It seems to me that, in the market-share struggle, a stable price is against OPEC's best interests. NonOPEC producers will be hesitant to invest in future production if $9 oil next month is an ever present threat. The stabler the price, the safer an investment oil development is. Bickering and cheating among the members seems the way to keep nonOPEC producers off-balance. A stable price will have them feeling very comfortable with drilling more and more. Why not? More barrels = More profits. --And once big expenditures on development have been made, it's too late to discourage them. Oil has to get awfully cheap before producing wells are shut down. --This seems a foreseeable problem that I don't have clue how OPEC plans to deal with. Perhaps they will just accept it? But, getting back to your point, I must agree that $25 could be sustained, perhaps indefinitely, if OPEC wants it, assuming OPEC maintains current conditions of internal cohesion and market share. Just mho, of course. regards, diana