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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (75204)	11/12/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

the Fed likely to be accommodative in view of next years election What happened in '92?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (75204)	11/12/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Heinz, >>>> , i agree a crash is statistically speaking such a rare event that it is nearly impossible to call. however, the madness in some of the tech stocks is also statistically improbable...and yet it is happening. and it is precisely at times when you see a buying panic driving certain sectors and stocks to incredible levels when imo the statistical probability for a crash is higher than it normally is, as all crashes since the South Sea bubble have been preceded by such buying panics. <<<<< Dont get me wrong, Im not bullish and I will not discount the possibility of a crash. Im just trying to highlight that it is so hard to call and those who argue with those type of extreme calls are also wasting time and energy. Just a few nights ago, I was talking to some of my J6P friends where I said I was still bearish long term. As you know, that means that I feel that the S&P will trade back in the 15-20 P/E range within 5 years, and they also know that. Well more than one of them immediately assumed that I was calling for a crash, just because Im bearish. Ok, enough with that topic. It looks like sector rotation is alive and well, so far. I was getting a bit worried this morning when the DOW was not going up with the NAZ selling off. Heck, that may still happen by the close, but so far its looking OK. Also, its too early to call it a bear trap. If we surpass the intraday highs, then it was a bear trap, but until it is taken out, it may be the short-term top. Regardless we are only a day and a half away from the FOMC meeting. Again Im bring up the issue that so many are stating there is plenty of money on the sidelines. I question it again since why didnt the DOW/SPX move up more while the NAZ was zooming. The DOW is moving up now when some money is being pulled out of the NAZ. seeya