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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trumptown who wrote (14844)	11/12/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Downgrading QCOM to $235.00. . . . . ? AFter today's upgrade to 460. . . Who will be the first Wall Street anal-yst to downgrade QCOM? Taking guesses on the height it will hit before it collapses back to earth. I say $396.50 . . . . For the short-sellers in the group. . . The downside potential greatly outweighs the upside risk at these lofty heights. When formerly conservative analysts say they are buyers at $400 of a stock that was $20 bucks a year ago, that is the ultimate contrarian indicator. Competion from Nokia, Ericsson, Sony and Motorola is fierce. To think that Qualcomm is the Microsoft of the wireless world is a pipe dream. Motorola and the others have some fantastic wireless products slated, too . . .and chipmakers are not going to sit on their hands either. . . this is a lucrative industry. . .so I expect competition to heat up quickly. . . . . . and next week's COMDEX may reveal some new products from the competition . . to the dismay of Qualcomm shareholders buying QCOM at $400 or so. Now we first bought Qualcomm for our long portfolio on DecemberApril 20, 1999 at a post-split price of $64.50 per share. . . now up 485%. So it is a real thrill to see it at these levels. . . .but let's get realistic for a moment. Qualcomm PE ratio is 311 and price to sales is 14.64. By comparison, ERICY PE is 71.6 and price to sales is 3.72. . .and MOT PE is 114 and price to sales is just 2.35. Sales are up 14%. . .that's it. Not 140% or 1400%, like one might suspect with a valuation of 300+ times earnings. A 4-for-1 split is subject to shareholder approval in a vote on Dec. 20. No guarantees. . . wouldn't it be funny if. .. . no, shudder the thought! The company announced that, "it expects to enter into an agreement for the sale of its consumer products division by the end of 1999." This makes them primarily a chipmaker. . .NOT an internet company with a future that is endless. So I may be the only one that sees the Emperor of San Diego has no clothes. . . but it wouldn't be the first time I was out here on my limb alone. Rande Is