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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Malloy who wrote (92242)	11/12/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: Saturn V	Respond to of 186894

Ref- Intel stock doldrums The Intel stock is slipping. Reasons: A. THE OVERHANG OF THE PATENT SUIT. The $2billion-$8Billion claim casts a chill, even if the odds of that happening are remote. B.THE 820 FIASCO AND THE COPPERMINE SHORTAGE HAS TARNISHED INTEL's STELLAR IMAGE. I believe that the PIII are being stockpiled by users for the 820 launch next week. So the PIII visibility problem should go away in a week. C. THE PERCEPTION THAT AMD IS GATHERING MOMENTUM AT INTEL's EXPENSE. AMD has not fumbled in the last two months. With the capacity crunch AMD has finally got a reprieve. However this is not a zero sum game. Both Intel and AMD benefit, but on a relative basis AMD benefits more so than Intel.Yesterday,AMD published its detailed roadmap for next year. Intel as usual keeps its cards close to its chest, and has published only a sketchy map. Given the Sanders charm, hype,the detailed road map, and the execution history of only the last four weeks, AMD begins to look a lot stronger. AMD has a very risky road map, and industry outsiders are poor judges of risk, and cannot see the potential potholes. AMD's fortunes depend upon how long the present capacity crunch will last. Remember a year ago AMD was profitable in Q4 when AMD gained market share at the Retail level due to the capacity crunch. Once the capacity crunch ended, Intel launched the famous CELERON counterattack, causing major blood letting at all competitors. The present capacity crunch is helping AMD get greater acceptance of Athlon than I would like to see. If Intel addresses the PIII availability within two weeks, the damage will be short lived. What is not clear is the duration of the capacity crunch. If Intel is out of wafer fab capacity, then AMD can make profits on a more sustained basis. Else AMD will continue to live a precarious existence. Intel's long term record has been stellar. It will continue to dominate the PC microprocessor business, which is still growing. It will continue gaining ground in the higly profitable server space, which should benefit from the Internet growth. It is launching right products and businesses that will benefit from the Internet Age (a) Chips for the Web Appliances (b) chips for the Internet Communication infrastructure. Not all of these these new Internet ventures may succeed, and others may not have the profitability of microprocessors. But Intel has a history of uncovering veins of gold in new areas, and I am confident that Intel will continue to reward its shareholders. The analysts duty is to cause portfolio churn. So they upgrade and downgrade stocks for whimsical reasons. And by the way they are not any smarter than most of the people on this thread.