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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Diana R. Chambers who wrote (3175)11/12/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Peter J Hudson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13582
 
All,

It appears to me that the market has discounted earnings to year end 2001, but that's ok I'll still have my shares. Do any of you accountant types have an earnings model for next year assuming best case scenario for handset sale. How do we justify this valuation on a fundamental basis.

I don't understand time compression or Zen. Well maybe Zen a little.

Help
Pete



To: Diana R. Chambers who wrote (3175)11/12/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: llwk7051@aol.com  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 13582
 
Diana, Here are some of my reasons for holding. Hope they help you find your own.
1. Growth in cdma should exceed 50% based on almost all projections I have seen. I expect much more. Every indication is the cell phone market will shift to a version of cdma.
2. The handset buyer announcement maybe as big as the announcement that Ericsson was buying infrastructure. For example, Nokia buys. Agrees to buy chips from qcom, moves Europe to a cdma version.
3. Cdma becomes method of choice to connect to internet beats cable, landline phones, etc. in ease of use.
4. China opens up to cdma.
5. Cell phone growth of 1 billion is low estimate and we see cdma with over 50 percent of market. Cdma only 40 million now.
6. JV with Microsoft to connect phones to internet becomes viable business.
7. Gstrf becomes hugely profitable and opens entirely new markets.

Take your pick of which if any of the above you believe might happen. These are a few of my reasons for holding. My only reason to sell is fear that part of my obscene profits will evaporate.
Robert



To: Diana R. Chambers who wrote (3175)11/12/1999 9:08:00 PM
From: A.J. Mullen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13582
 
Diana, I don't disagree with Robert (3184, above) with respect to all te reasons for hanging on, but I have sold some of my shares. A few weeks ago I was talking with a friend who knew I had been long a long time, and explained why I thought there was a long way to go, but I said I was going to keep Q to around 20% of my portfolio. He said, "if your so confident, why not buy on margin." My response was, "I might be wrong!"

I sold some a week ago, keeping just more than 20% of my portfolio in Q. The price has gone up 25% since then! Am I kicking myself? No, I'm feeling well pleased with what stayed in Q. Still, I chose not to sell today, even though Q surpassed 25% of my portfolio.

So I broke a personal rule today. Sometime ago I broke another one. That was not to have more than 10% of my portfolio in any one stock. I think the first rule was very sensible, and I am glad I broke it. The second rule was also sensible. Will I be glad I broke that? You and I will both know within a week or so.

Are you more scared of losing profits, or missing them?