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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (33311)	11/12/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, hanging man on the NAZ today, not that that means much...<ggg> we have an interesting convergence of factors actually...today was a cycle top and both the 10-dma of the CBOE p/c ratio and the Rydex ratio are back to their July lows, or very close to being back there. the 10-day TRIN belongs to another universe...it can not possibly exist here <ggg> a quick comparison of the LT NAZ with the LT Nikkei chart shows that both the extent and slope of this blow-off are already considerably larger than the Nikkei equivalent of the late '80's. i have always suspected that we would be putting that puny Japanese mania to shame, and voila, success! it remains to be seen if we can even go one better than we already have. my gut feeling (sorry<g>) says yes. apart from my gut there are several reasons that would argue for the rally to extend well into next year. one is the cycles which point up sharply into July 2,000. the other is the fact that next year is an election year, traditionally a very good time for the market. the Fed meanwhile has the printing presses running on a 24-hour shift, with M2 rising a cool 14 1/2 billion in the first week of November... furthermore there is the e-wave based pet theory of mine that says that every mania should exceed certain features of it's immediate predecessors by a fibo multiple. candidates for this are the duration of the 28/29 a/d divergence, the '87 top stock/bond yield ratio, the percentage move of the Nikkei's blow-off stage, and i invite you hereby to think of more possibilities. without as of yet having calculated any of these, i'd say we're getting close. anyway, recognition of the FINAL top will be possible only in hindsight. btw, the towel throwing has assumed unexpected proportions. i have seen long-term holders of BEARX and USPIX finally succumbing...the Prudent Bear message board has now 3-4 people every day on average announcing publicly that they have checked out for the past two weeks or so. that may not sound like much, but it actually is something that has NEVER happened before. at least not since i read the messages for getting a feel for the bear camp's mood. remember i mentioned before that the perma shorts would be utterly destroyed by this market before it would proceed to destroy the bulls as well, and that is actually now happening (demolition of the shorts, that is). interesting times.... regards, hb PS: i have shorted QCOM three times since yesterday's close and was stopped out twice. the final attempt seems to be working so far. what an UFB stock. i just hope that the dead fish target of 460 won't be reached on Monday...