Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (33343)	11/12/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, Is anyone ready to predict any short term top here? As I recall, no one predicted a short term bottom 3 weeks back when there was some fear in the market. I hear that if we get an increase Tuesday, we MIGHT see some selling as many now feel we may not need a raise. The NAZ seemed close today to selling off. The nets had a bad day and 1/4 before mostly bouncing. I still am concerned that the transports have not really participated, that the rally is mostly in several big names, and that the NAZ is now up some 40+ percent for the year. If the insanity is to continue, which stocks can handle another 5,10,20+ increase in price. Most that have carried us here are already sardines pricewise. I will step up and say the emperor has no clothes. That we are seeing a blow off here which is not true appreciation but rather SHORT COVERING! I suspect we will see some strong selling before the end of the year. Don't know what will prompt it but once it begins, people will not be able to get out quickly enough. Steve D.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (33343)	11/13/1999 4:33:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, As previously mentioned I have a CLASS 2 SELL signal on the SPX, and an upper midrange reading for the DOW and if the SPX gets to 1405 range on Monday it will ring a CLASS 1 SELL signal with the buy-in MON/TUE. In an up market, I do not go with a CLASS 2 signal, but just consider it as a sign to get ready for the CLASS 1. Its obvious that the intermediate trend is still up, but of course we have the FOMC meeting which could change that, depending on the outcome. Again, shorting this market is very dangerous. Unfortunately I cannot rely on my technicals in light of the importance of the FOMC meeting influencing the direction of the market. Concerning sector rotation. Im inclined to say that if the news is good where rates are not increase and there bias is eliminated, the DOW could move up strongly but that the NAZ may lag or even sell off some, and the SPX will move in the middle of the NAZ/DOW as it is now. If rates are raised there should be be selling of, and if the bias is continued then that should intensify the selling. The likelihood is that once the selling is over it should still be a buying opportunity. Of course if the selling is really extreme establishing LOWER LOWs then this intermediate uptrend is over, but that is less likely. Although I am now intermediately bullish per my technicals, subjectively, I cannot totally ignore the overly bullish sentiment, which could be a contrarian indicator. My long-term view of the SPX reaching a P/E of 15-20 within 5 years, still is unchanged since the market internals are still weak and have not improved significantly. seeya