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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (33347)	11/13/1999 8:39:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Vitas, Not that I talk about individual stocks much, but the recent IPO, UPS, is of interest as an example of the mania. I saw the comments of TICE, and his mention concerning UPS. Who knows when the top will arrive, but as for UPS specificly, this baby will come down once the momentum top is in. Mania at its best. What I feel people are forgetting is that its a transportation stock, not a high tech. Since I use to be in the that biz, UPS is subject to fuel costs and labor issues which is always problems in transportation. The P/E is basicly double all the major freight carriers. Of course they have an advantage being the largest but is it worth double the other carriers like FDX. Im not saying that right now is the top, just that when the momentum subsides this baby could lose 25%+ of its value very quickly. Its interesting to note that UPS was down 6% yesterday when most of its competitors were up. There is not enough technical data to make a prediction, since it just opened this week, so it could still go alot higher if momentum permits. seeya

To: Vitas who wrote (33347)	11/13/1999 4:18:00 PM
From: Walt Deemer	Respond to of 99985

Presumably the effect of that is over and we need to look for another peak [in the 4/52-week NASDAQ/NYSE volume ratio] over the threshold level, and then a secondary and perhaps tertiary lower peak after that? Sometimes -- but sometimes an initial peak is all the warning you get. I'm just a simple type, so as far as I'm concerned, as long as the ratio keeps rising, it's telling us that speculative activity is still building, and when it reverses, it's telling us that the speculative advance has probably run out of steam. (And, personally, I don't think I'd like to ride the roller coaster between the initial peak and a possible secondary peak with a fully-invested position). ;O) -- Walt