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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (8933)	11/13/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: LauA	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78625

James, give me your sense of value on FARM. This is a west coast family coffee company selling at $165 with $112.75 of high grade marketable securities per share. The underlying business is essentially debt-free with after tax profit of $36 mill on $225 of revenue. Backing the cash per share out of the stock price, I end up with a $52 stock with operating earnings per share of $15-18/share. Lau

To: James Clarke who wrote (8933)	11/13/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: cfimx	Respond to of 78625

and in the red corner....james clarke...in the blue corner...Bill Miller. May the best analyst win!! JC: just don't bite his ear off okay?

To: James Clarke who wrote (8933)	11/13/1999 11:40:00 PM
From: TwoBear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78625

Devil's Advocate: "The sky is falling" for the fifth year now. How long do we wait before we come back outside? With the returns from the last five years, you could at least break even with a major crash. Scott

To: James Clarke who wrote (8933)	11/14/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

"I'd like to think that if I own real absolute value stocks it won't matter if the big indexes drop 50%. But that might be wishful thinking. " Jim, in that Rediscovered book, Graham makes it quite clear that value stocks will be punished every bit as much and probably more in a market downturn, according to his research. He of course advocates raising cash or adjusting to bonds if one thinks the market is too high. In another area, though, he talks of the tremendous values that can be found even in a high-priced market. I find this book fascinating -- lots of stuff I hadn't read before. Mike

To: James Clarke who wrote (8933)	11/14/1999 7:56:00 PM
From: TRINDY	Respond to of 78625

Thanks for your rational comments. I, too, think things are getting well overextended. My guess is that if there is a dramatic downturn in business equipment purchases in the new year, that may well be the catalyst for a sharp decline. It will take a dramatic move to bring this beast to its knees. National Data was touted in a Barron's article this week as a value stock. Got to admit, it sounded pretty good compared with its peers. Do you have any opinion on this stock? TIA