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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (49724)	11/13/1999 11:33:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 152472

your qtrly sequential earnings growth is absurd current 1st quarter will exceed $1 handily Q1 is the biggest quarter of the year 4th quarter will likely be around double 87c (4Q99) 1.20 + ? + ? + 1.80 = approx 6.0 if symmetrically balanced I know seasonality will assure lack of balance to give it a range: say 5.80 to 6.20 CDMA subscribership is growing exponentially GSM will begin to break ranks by midyear to hell with conservative... I much prefer accurate and reasonable you have laughable growth built in / Jim

To: marginmike who wrote (49724)	11/13/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

You are just valuing their CDMAone earnings stream. By your logic AMZN should be valued at zero. You have to consider the value of the wireless internet access business (which is going to be bigger than voice in IMO) and other emerging businesses from the Q camp.

To: marginmike who wrote (49724)	11/13/1999 11:37:00 AM
From: Randall Knight	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

"I am using 5 dollars. I am assuming 1.10+1.20+130+1.40. That is assuming we grow 50% next year. Which I think is realistic. It could go higher but these are REALISTIC guesstimates." Earnings for this past quarter would have been around .96 excluding the handset. The sale of the handset will include some sort of guarantee to grow CDMA propagation either through an agreement to use Q asics or to further the adoption of CDMA in under served countries (read Europe). Also, if HDR is going be implemented in early 2001, carriers and infrastructure suppliers are going to be buying from Q well in advance of that. Given these two things I think you could revise your estimates up. How about $1.20 1.40 1.65 1.90? $6.15 for FY2000 or 1.54 post split. Now, as an extreme growth stock, give it a PE at least commensurate with AOL. How about 110? That would be based on TTM. The PE on forward estimates would be more like 75. That gives it a stock price of $169 post split. And you know what? I think I'm being too conservative.

To: marginmike who wrote (49724)	11/13/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Mike. I am using 55% growth adjusting 9/99 up to $1.05 for handset losses. $1.17 + $1.30 + $1.46 + $1.63 =$5.56 and assuming a 55% growth rate. But remember the Q mgt forcast is for 70MM CDMA phones in calendar 2000 vs 40MM in 1999--an increase of 75%. Depending on how soon others get their ASICS working, Q could get most of the new phones. Any way, If Q locks up the ASICs business when they sell phone division, this will have a very positive effect on earnings. Also, the emotion plus high long term earnings growth justify a multiple higher than 80 x earnings.With the right news, perceptions and conditions, Q could support a price or $500 to $600 today. Value is created in the marketplace---wireless, broadband and interned are hot words that create value. JohnG

To: marginmike who wrote (49724)	11/13/1999 12:42:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 152472

margin, Check out my numbers. You are not benchmarking your PEG against other high growth tech darlings. If you think Q earns $5 in '00 and then $7.00 in '01 (40% growth), then we are surely undervalued: Current Price- $395 '01 Est. - $7.00 EPS Growth rate- 40% (realistic IMO) PE- 56 (current PE would be here based upon above) PEG- 1.40 Benchmarked PEG- 2.6 or so (based upon market multiples, CSCO, SUNW, JDSU, etc..) Above assumptions would put QCOM today at around $700 per share. This is not hype. It is based upon the above fundamental assumptions. I have crunched the numbers and would like to see my errors if I have made any. Respectfully, MileHigh