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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (71809)	11/13/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Harry: The single biggest thing preventing me from buying back my whole former long position in COMPAQ is precisely the fear that there may be a negative warning or surprise. I don't think COMPAQ has yet earned back the trust it lost due to the series of negatives it issued this year. The stage for a warning or surprise has been set. No guidance for earnings in 4Q. Cautionary statements by MC about the unique invisibility of 4Q 1999. New products scheduled for 1Q 2Q 3Q 2000 apparently to take advantage of YK2 catch-up buying postponed from 4Q 1999. (DELL's YK2 assurances do not comfort me: they have conceded that some sectors have indicated that YK2 will cause them to postpone purchases to the new year, but other small businesses will take up the slack - but how much of that "but" is DELL bluster?) I feel confident about COMPAQ moving to $26-28 in the present state of our common knowledge, but as we approach the end of December I would be increasingly nervous if we have not heard by then some comforting noises about 4Q and YK2. This is why I consider my current holding of CPQ to be a trading position. If we do get those comforting noises, or, if revenues meet or exceed average expctations (which are very low),then I feel that the price will penetrate $30 and may even spike to $35-36 before the end of January.