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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: radames who wrote (33364)	11/13/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

FWIW: Shepler Capital Management: Weekly Outlook for 11/15 - 11/19/99 Dow 13,000 Near? In last week's commentary we stated: "Our cycle analysis called for a turning point high in the 11/3 +/- 3 trading day timeframe. We believe that this high was posted at Friday's morning high of 1387.49 SPX, which should be followed by some weakness going into the 11/16 Fed meeting. Positive beginning of month seasonality expired Friday, and next week is pre-expiration week which is typically a countertrend affair... while we look for some potential weakness next week, we continue to view any pullback here as an intermediate-term buying opportunity. In fact any sell-off into Friday 11/12 would set-up the 'buy the Friday pre-expiration week' trade." Last Friday's intraday high of 1387.49 SPX did prove to be a short-term high, and was followed by 4 days of choppy sideways action before finally being broken to the upside this Friday. Even though we remained on a bullish bias, the shallowness of this week's short-term pullback was a pleasant surprise to us. Those traders who chose to take the "buy the Friday of pre-expiration week" on this Friday mornings initial sell-off would have profited handsomely. Next week should be quite an eventful one, with options expiration volatility being exacerbated by the most uncertainty surrounding the outcome of a Fed meeting in some time. Normally, the outcome of the meeting is telegraphed by Greenspan and crew, but this time the market appear to be closely divided, which makes for a volatile reaction. Right now the odds appear to favor no rate hike (30% chance based on Fed funds futures) at the November meeting, but the maintenance of a tightening bias. Regardless of what the Fed does the market is showing enough bullish momentum right now that we suspect several more weeks of rally lie ahead. In short, we have no major cycle turning points in the forecast until early December, which is forecast to be a low. Expiration week bias is typically bullish, but with so much uncertainty surrounding the Fed meeting it could be a treacherous week for short-term traders. However, our intermediate-term systems remain on solid buy signals, and positive seasonality is about to kick into full gear with the "Santa Claus" rally not too far off on the horizon. So, in spite of any short-term bumps next week as a result of Fed actions, we are still expecting this rally to last at a minimum into January of next year, as the market discounts a Y2K non-event, and strong 4th quarter earnings. Dow 13000 and SPX 1600 are the extended upside targets for this move, but in the short-term we should expect some stiff resistance at the prior all time high of 1420 SPX. (c) 1999. Bill Shepler - You can write to Bill at wshepler@yahoo.com

To: radames who wrote (33364)	11/13/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I don't think the FOMC meeting will make a bit of difference... these markets just broke out all over the place... NAZ is in the early phases of a runaway market.. call it rational exhuberance, it makes good sense for these markets to move higher.. the world is becoming high tech and Japan is recovering very nicely... some are calling it a blow off, but I don't think so... I think we're moving to the next plateau... next stop for the NAZ is 3500 and beyond... all the other averages will catch up pretty soon and we should be seeing new all time highs all around the board.. I think Greenspan will announce that they will not tighten, but will maintain a tightening bias... yeah, well, okay.. big deal.... woof, woof.... I can bark all day too and see how many people I can scare.....<g> My Best Regards. GZ