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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dennis who wrote (16066)11/13/1999 5:55:00 PM
From: Tickertype  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
To all:

Though the cc is still available to listeners on the net, I thought I'd put up a few of Lev's answers for those who may not have audio capability, or who may not be able to listen for any other reason. These are some of the items I found quite interesting, as they address the present status of the company and the business.

Question: Is there a time frame we might looks for...that second order to be coming across the news wires?

Lev: ....we're optimistic that orders are coming and we don't want to forecast...but we have indications that some customers are preparing to order...when that will be, with the end of the year arriving, I won't forecast.

Question: How do additional cash flows that you have.. impact the need for new stock sales going forward, and how do you propose to do that?

Lev: Well we will be in a pretty good...you know, next year as we run...what we really have to decide is how fast to ramp up, and that will determine our cash needs. Some of that will depend on product acceptance, but we're beginning to believe that product acceptance will be more than acceptable. We have a plan right now that allows us, with a modest amount of increased capital, a modest amount meaning
our shelf plus a little bit perhaps, will get us the cash we need to go forward through the next year. Now, the IDB will provide us, depending on how much we spend, a good chunk of that 25 million and we're looking at whether we want to ramp up faster at the end of next year or not, keeping in mind that some of our machinery takes up to 14 months to be delivered. Unfortunately we'll have to provide over 40% of the cash for the machinery or even more than that prior to its delivery, so we have to schedule it. We have a plan and a schedule, we've given you the outline of the results of that plan.

Question about customer's concerns about pricing, etc:

Lev: ...all customers want to negotiate the best price they can get. I might add, though, that with the absolute explosion...no better word I think can be used...explosion in the use of cell phones in the world, there is developing, I suspect, is developing a battery shortage in general of high energy density batteries. And certainly the price of cobalt oxide, which we don't use, is skyrocketing on the market. It's relieving some of the pressure on us where, you know, we're satisfied with the competitive environment right now, and I'd also point out to you that if we hit all the targets that we anticipate hitting, if we hit them, uh, then we'll lose market share. (i.e. the pie is growing faster than their slice)

Question from one of our prolific SI posters: Are there any bottlenecks at this point in terms of reaching that 80 million dollar level of capacity?

Lev: Yes, we need some equipment, first phase, I said 35 last time, it's 45 million dollars annualized run rate which we could hit pretty quickly, 70 million by the middle of next year sometime, or late next year, an annual run rate. We need some equipment to do that but it's well within what we expect to get from the IDB by that time. After that we'll need investment to go on up to the 200 million dollar rate which we'll achieve the following year, or 250, whatever, and the amount of investment is well within our ability to raise money as we go forward, and I think the IDB grant...remember a third of that money up to a maximum of 32 million dollars.

Question regarding status of Hanil: Could you get a little more specific, I mean next year...one year from now?

Lev: I'll be glad to. The factory consists basically of an assembly line, similar to one we have, in fact virtually identical to one we have here in Ireland, a packaging machine which is far more sophisticated than one I have here in Ireland, one I'm ordering for myself, which is capable of 70 batteries per minute, packaging, and degas/reseal and other equipment necessary to balance the line. They have some conditioning equipment arriving, they have some in place, enough in place to get going at a good rate, and some extraction equipment...these are the major processes involved. All the equipment has been exercised successfully...they have some size questions, whether to re-tool some of the machinery for a different size...that question depends on the customer, frankly, not me. If they have a re-tooling effort it's gonna take them 2 (or 3 - couldn't make out which for sure) months to re-tool...and before they can really hit their stride, but they're making batteries now that are good for qualification purposes, sent out to customers. Customers in general will accept a size variation from a sample provided.

Well, there's lots more, but this is long enough for now. I was pleased to note that no less than two of our posters had the chance to ask questions this time!

- T -



To: Dennis who wrote (16066)11/14/1999 12:01:00 AM
From: P. Ramamoorthy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27311
 
Dennis,

I taped the Conf call as I listened to it this weekend.

I highlighted those points that were not addressed by posters here. These points are important in the year 2000: cashflow, IDB grants, equity dilution, capacity expansion, etc.

Cash flow and product quality are the key to success in VLNC investing. I was happy to hear Lev emphasizing those points.

The learning curve for the competition will be steep (as confirmed by statements like "the OEM customer that issued the current $2Million PO, found the batteries from a second source short of specs").
I pointed out in an earlier post Re.: locking out competition from buying specific machinery. This is good for VLNC investors. jmo.

Lev also addressed well the question of VLNC being the single source supplier. Single source supply is a big issue in manufacturing. (Re.: MSFT monopoly!) It will definitely figure into price negotiations. My guess is that the "VLNC camel wants its nose inside the tent" for now. I wouldn't complain about the size of PO's for now.

40 potential customers testing for cell phones, PDA's, laptops, etc. If this is true, I see no need to get anxious about PO's like some investors do.

A few posters (including me) here have been exploiting market inefficiencies created by CC or shorts' gambit to drive down the price and accumulate shares at cheap prices. No brainer!

Another point that is somewhat negatively misinterpreted by posters:
This was in reference to a question about market share and applications for which VLNC battery is being marketed.
"...if we hit all targets, our market share will be reduced..."

This is my interpretation:
Lev is focusing on three major markets: Cell phones, PDA's and Laptops. Lev stated in the last call, "...there will be an explosion of cell phones..." We know that maximum production capacity is limited to the installed capacity at NI and Hanil plants. If VLNC targets several markets, they have two choices: (1) supply fewer batteries in to each market (that means "...reduced marker share..."), (2) supply more batteries (probably dominate) in fewer markets (Warren Buffet style?), because their production capacity is limited. I think this is what Lev meant. He talked so fast that some could have interpret negatively.

According to Lev, it takes "about 14 months or so" to bring a line into production. You can understand why he is concentrating on doing a good job in fewer markets than spreading thin in many markets. This strategy also offers lower marketing costs, lower re-tooling costs and faster revenue generation.

We knew two quarters ago (recall, last shareholder meeting?) that VLNC (NI and Hanil) lines are geared to making cell phones for several reasons: easy to get a high rate of production, supply large volumes per single customer, less time for "product designing in" compared to laptop, and, most of all, the safety and weight aspects, etc.

This is what led me to a conjecture, (long, long ago) that the first PO would be for cell phone (probably out of Hanil plant.)

In the laptop area, safety of manganese dioxide technology beats the competition, overwhelmingly! No question about it! With a projected use time of about 8 hours compared to 1 hr 40 min, VLNC ("only game in town" as mooter calls it) will be the single source supplier to many vendors that want to increase PC sales. My guess is that this will be the next major PO, based on reasons discussed above. (Lines are optimized for laptop battery production)

Good luck to all longs! Ram