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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (33371)	11/13/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, I too agree with GZ that the frustrated fed will not be able to raise interest rates Tuesday but will maintain a tightening bias. How do you think this will affect the markets. I disagree with GZ about the reaction (of the market). The financials rose strong (in the dow) Friday, pricing in the good news. If we remain with a tightening bias, I think that puts fear in the markets over the next meeting and news coming up. For the markets to continue up, I think they need to tighten and change the bias to neutral. Your thoughts (or HB)? Steve D.

To: donald sew who wrote (33371)	11/13/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

don, here is my take on sentiment: "da bulls" may be going head-first into a trap of their own making. Let me explain. It concerns the FOMC meeting on Tues. The bulls, as articulated by a columnist on CBSMarketwatch.com, have only one view of any outcome of the Tues. meeting. That view has been seconded here on this thread: View on outcome a): If the Fed raises a 1/4, big deal, rates will be back to the same level they were a year ago, and furthermore, it will undoubtedly be the last one for several months, if there even is anymore. The nasdaq apparently agrees with this view, as does the S&P, with the latter index "breaking out" up 15 pts the Friday before the Tues. meeting. View on outcome b): If the Fed doesn't raise next Tues, so much the better, that will be another green light for exuberance. ("Get used to it Alan G.", said the sage on CBSMarketwatch.com) If history is any guide whatsoever, the stockmarket is always attempting to work as a discounting mechanism: Whatever is expected, that is quickly priced into the market. The stock market, and "da bulls" in particular, have already discounted whichever senario A.G. plans to dish out. There won't be anything left to do but sell the news. I'm buying index puts on Monday.