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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockHawk who wrote (10285)	11/13/1999 7:56:00 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Stockhawk, I think I've been waiting for you to post this summary for some time....at least I haven't seen anything else that sorts this out quite so well. My grasp has always been that this is a Beta/VHS kind of relationship, but the SNDK move to fab had puzzled me. Tying that move to the Q's manufacture of phones is a help, but a bit of a non sequitur...the phone is the end user device, SNDK is doing the gut device to be used in other end user devices. I also see that's there's a disconnect between an IOM and an SNDK. Still, you've made good points very well. On another point: I just saw the first TV ad for the newest 007 flick, "The World Is Not Enough"....(sounds like the Gorilla from up north)...with logos from MSFT-CE and H-P. Is this the first week that Q made the most active list for the week? I noticed it was #13 on the list of 20. Volume about 1/5th of MSFT, which was #1.

To: StockHawk who wrote (10285)	11/13/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: pala	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Thanks Stockhawk: I've been following your SanDisk posts with interest. Doug

To: StockHawk who wrote (10285)	11/14/1999 5:45:00 AM
From: Naveen Kumar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Speaking of SNDK, are you familiar with another much smaller company in the Flash Memory business called Silicon Storage Technology Inc. (SSTI)? This stock has become a significant portion of my IRA account and I'm getting a little nervous. Are they the ones that make SmartCard ? Any input will be much appreciated.

To: StockHawk who wrote (10285)	11/14/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

OK, I think thats about it for me and SNDK. StockHawk No, no, no, not so fast Hawkeye..... How do you gauge the switching costs by consumers, OEMS? Where are we in the technology adoption life cycle? in the bowling alley with several pins, or in a tornado(es). If the latter, are you saying we have a gorilla, and are you investing in Sandisk? Either way, you have served the thread well by your generous comments and time spent helping us understand this niche. Best respects, Stan

To: StockHawk who wrote (10285)	11/14/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Stock--Good post. I made a pretty good effort to find out about smartmedia the other day, but have been unable to find out: 1. Who makes SmartMedia? 2. Is SmartMedia proprietary, or is it a consortium standard, or what? My search did reveal that SmartMedia runs about 15% cheaper than Compact Flash of the same capacity. I'm not sure that means anything other than the supply/demand picture is easier for SmartMedia than CompactFlash. An anecdote: I went into my local camera store (note: NOT electronics store) the other day and asked if they had any 2 meg digital cameras. He had one, from Fuji. I asked, "Does it take CompactFlash?" Him: "No, smartmedia. Most cameras take smartmedia, maybe two-thirds." Me: "What size comes with the camera?" Him: "8 megs" Me: "Can I get larger memory?" Him: "Yes, I've got 16 meg" Me: "Can I get 32 megs?" Him: "Yes, but it's hard to get". Some comments based on that encounter: 1. Sandisk is still swimming upstream against some entrenched competition. 2. His estimates of market share contradict a review of websites. One website I looked at shows both smartmedia and CompactFlash on sale. The smartmedia offering listed 8 camera manufacturers as using it. The CompactFlash offering listed 19 manufacturers. 3. The camera store owner's attitude might be different from an electronics store's. 4. The additional cost of CompactFlash cards over smartmedia ($15) is trivial in comparison with the camera cost--$795. Best, JS [Voluntary disclosure: Long SNDK, although not as a pure Gorilla play. I think we may still be a year away from confirmation of SNDK as a gorilla, and flash technology is not particularly disruptive].