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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (33387)	11/13/1999 9:30:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

John, how did the market fare in Nov-Dec '97, as you recall? I recall Santa pulled a no-show. But, perhaps it just a bad dream. edit: I'm not saying there will be no Santa Rally in the Nov-Dec-Jan timeframe. I'm just saying that I doubt such a rally will exceed the one from late Oct to now, percentage-wise. But that's just my opinion. I'm also of the opinion that there will be some kind of pullback between now and any so-called Santa Rally.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (33387)	11/13/1999 11:20:00 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dwight, I think that list of Santa rallies from Decisionpoint is a bit misleading from a statistical point of view, since it's not based on a constant time period. Rather they take the best time period within a 3-month window of Nov 1 to Jan 31. For example for 81-82, they say the market went up 2.20% between Nov 18 and Dec 4. Presumably that implies that in no time period between Nov 1 81 and Jan 31 82 did the market increase MORE than 2.20%. Therefore it must have been in a downtrend over that period! Who was it said "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics"? Fun-da-Mental