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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JHR who wrote (54708)	11/14/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

re MDR --see Yahoo bb posts # 375 and 380 --Bill was first introduced in March and got 29 co-sponsers from Mar-July (6 Senate and 23 House) and then attracted 19 more co-sponsers since the latter part of Sept (8 Senate and 11 House). Chairmen of both Senate and House are behind it. Dems such as Dodd,Lieberman and Torricelli are in favour of it----My suspicion is that few of the people who either bought or sold on Thursday/Friday were even aware that there was such a Bill winding its way through Congress. Let's reflect for a moment---DLJ comes out Fri am with very good eps estimates for 2000 and 2001 and puts a $24 price target on the stock and then lowers rating to Hold solely because of their inability to quantify the asbestos downside risk.--- If the risk was no different than what it was before--ie the 'moderate' escalation in future claims costs was still accepted (moderate being already reflected in MDR's balance sheet)--then this stock might have weakened very temporarily to say $16 worst case due to poor near term earnings. But then the stock plunges in a fit of panic (sell first ask questions later)--and now, after the panic, suddenly the street gets wind of the Bill (or remembers it)and starts to focus on it--the Bill would stop nonsick plaintiffs from getting any money while setting up an administrative system to determine which plaintiffs are sick and to offer them quick settlements BASED ON PREVIOUS RECOVERIES. ---ie we would be back to at least the same projections that MDR had made all along and maybe even better since the MDR estimate had already allowed for a 'moderate' escalation in future claim costs----that could mean that the stock might now be susceptible of almost doubling 'overnight' once investors realized the implications of the Bill and began to assess the liklihood of it passing in substantially its present form (it had already been modified in order to suit Senate and House members' preferances and the above effect is what is still in it after the modifications).---As I see it, this Bill may soon become a powerfull incentive for investors to start buying MDR stock heavily in the coming days as it could well mean that the stock could double in a fairly short period of time and after it had doubled only then be 'fairly valued' based on standard industry economics of a recovery in oilfield and power geration business--ie it could triple or more in say 6 months with the asbestos worry behind it---certainly is intriguing down here at 8.63 with the presence of this Bill in the background! my 2c