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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yellowfintuna who wrote (17018)	11/14/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

PERCENTAGE-wise of what? Overall market share? As you say it depends on what "the market" is. ATHM has a very reasonable chance to get 15-25% of all internet users in North America. Thats a very long way up from the <1% they have now. Since AOL already has >50% there's not any chance they will grow the % as much (share is by definition percentage). When you include the market as the whole world it gets more complex. ATHM so far has rights in Japan, Germany, and Australia which are the most significant international markets. I could see them taking 10-25% of the total market in those countries too. Will America Online dominate in Germany or Japan? I very much doubt it. They dont have the same kinds of advantages they did in building the base here. market share of exisiting cable? market share of new cable? Not sure of the question, but ATHM is likely in time to actually lose share in cable service. As I said regarding AOL- when you dominate you have no way to go but down. share price growth? Ah, thats the big question isnt it? ATHM is priced as a "might fail" and could easily grow 60x in the number of users in the next 10 years. AOL is already priced as a "will win" and has no chance of growing more than 5x in user base in the same timeframe. If ATHM suceeds even to a moderate extent the share price will grow drastically more than AOL ever could. earnings growth of e-commerce? Its my opinion that eventually AOL will no longer have its advantage in forcing advertising dollars due to its closed environment and users too novice to know they can turn the ad's off. Eventually it will boil down to who provides the most compelling shopping environment. I dont know what that will be like exactly but I can guarantee that it will be on broadband. An interesting question: Who will have more broadband users in 5 years: ATHM or AOL? Dont forget that we have ignored the entire @work/work.com dynamic too. You never know when something like could turn out to be a huge success. Lastly remember that www.excite.com has the potential to earn from the entire world while www.aol.com does not without redefining the business model. Eric