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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William who wrote (10378)	11/14/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

William, Re QCOM's move-- Not to state the obvious, but a pullback this week is not a given. The two main things that move a stock are: 1. Changes in the fundamental prospects of a company's future earnings, and 2. Perceptions by market participants of the prospects. Q's actual prospects have been changing gradually for years, while perception of those prospects have lagged behind. Q's prospects continue to move up, while its visibility in the market continues to rise. The latest "improvement" (both actual and now perceived) is HDR. What I cannot tell is how much of the current buying is due to improved recognition of Q's prospects, or how much is momentum. Q will continue to rise [it is a Gorilla, after all]. On the other hand, technical analysts would state that a 50% pullback from the current runup from around 214 would be expected. Of course, we don't know if we are at the top of the runup. And, of course, the manual says don't watch the stock price too closely. We're just concerned with Q's position in the jungle. And that just seems to be getting better. Best, JS

To: William who wrote (10378)	11/15/1999 12:19:00 AM
From: jhg_in_kc	Respond to of 54805

I was in aol last nov. when it was added to the s&p 500. as i recall it went up almost 20 points overnihgt it went from 89 to 129 something, announced an unexpected split only a few months after one had just occurred, the newly split stock then went from 80 or so to 175 by late April, early may 1999. Then the stock was hammmred unmercilfully thoughout 1999 down to 75 about two months ago. It is now 150. One might expect QCOM to have a similar spike after the 4for 1 split, then get hammered for a long time next year until it investors see proof of the CMDA world domination story coming in in the form of earnings. Then again, none of this may apply, if QcOM is truly the new MSFT. we could also see a steady, slower but relentless march up. jhg