To: long-gone who wrote (45019 ) 11/14/1999 10:10:00 PM From: Giraffe Respond to of 116756
buysignals.com As a bit of a recap, banking stocks jumped 11.4% in two days at the end of October on an interest-rate-relief rally. Today this sector is up 4%, almost back to where it was after the 11.4% gain. What's the point? If interest rates are no longer a concern, why isn't this interest-rate-sensitive group soaring? Moreover, the long bond yield has actually fallen by 20 basis points since late October, bolstering the argument for higher prices in financial stocks. Buy Signals first investing parameter is to find 'relatively safe periods' in which to invest. With the exception of technology stocks, no other major average has logged a substantially higher high on this of all gifts to the market: lower interest rates. Why not? It's rather myopic of the market to look only at Fed action and our own brief respite from rising interest rates. Globally, economies and rates are on the rise. There's plenty of pressure on bonds from the increasing prices of oil and other commodities. It only stands to reason that as non-U.S. consumers recover, their demand for goods increase. Perhaps the only bond market savior would be an exceptionally warm winter (lower fuel demand). The more hot air blown into this paper asset balloon, the more vulnerable its skin is to puncture. Merrill's downgrade of Intel today demonstrates how close to the exits big money is standing and how quick it is to leave at the first hint of the music stopping. We're not playing chicken with the momentum players. With interest rates rising worldwide and oil prices looking firm, gold stocks passed their first test this week of the expected rally which began on Monday. Yesterday's 3.8% loss was the typical punishment this sector hands to those who chase the first momentum move. Today's buoyancy is stability indicative of genuine interest in those who dig the stuff out of the ground.